Related papers: Directional Multivariate Extremes in Environmental…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
Leveraging the recently emerging geometric approach to multivariate extremes and the flexibility of normalising flows on the hypersphere, we propose a principled deep-learning-based methodology that enables accurate joint tail extrapolation…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…
We introduce a new formulation of structural causal models for extremes, called the extremal structural causal model (eSCM). Unlike conventional structural causal models, where randomness is governed by a probability distribution, eSCMs use…
Consider an ergodic measure preserving dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$, and an observable $\phi:X\to\mathbb{R}$. For the time series $X_n(x)=\phi(T^{n}(x))$, we establish limit laws for the maximum process $M_n=\max_{k\leq n}X_k$ in the case…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…
Environmental contours are used in structural reliability analysis of marine and coastal structures as an approximate means to locate the boundary of the distribution of environmental variables, and hence sets of environmental conditions…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…
The regular variation model for multivariate extremes decomposes the joint distribution of the extremes in polar coordinates in terms of the angles and the norm of the random vector as the product of two independent densities: the angular…
We develop a novel multi-factor copula model for multivariate spatial extremes, which is designed to capture the different combinations of marginal and cross-extremal dependence structures within and across different spatial random fields.…
In this paper our aim is to characterize the set of extreme points of the set of all n-dimensional copulas (n > 1). We have shown that a copula must induce a singular measure with respect to Lebesgue measure in order to be an extreme point…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
The task of analyzing extreme events with censoring effects is considered under a framework allowing for random covariate information. A wide class of estimators that can be cast as product-limit integrals is considered, for when the…
The two popular systemic risk measures CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) and CoES (Conditional Expected Shortfall) have recently been receiving growing attention on applications in economics and finance. In this paper, we study the…
Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…
In this work, we summarize the state-of-the-art methods in causal inference for extremes. In a non-exhaustive way, we start by describing an extremal approach to quantile treatment effect where the treatment has an impact on the tail of the…
Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…