Related papers: Large deviation principle for Poisson driven SDEs …
This paper is concerned with the growth rate of SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemics with general infectious period distribution on random intersection graphs. This type of graph is characterized by the presence of cliques…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
One of the main contributions of this paper is to illustrate how large deviation theory can be used to determine the equilibrium distribution of a basic droplet model that underlies a number of important models in material science and…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The asymptotic analysis of a class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with fully locally monotone coefficients covering a large variety of physical systems, a wide class of quasilinear SPDEs and a good number of fluid…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
We investigate an epidemic model based on Bailey's continuous differential system. In the continuous time domain, we extend the classical model to time-dependent coefficients and present an alternative solution method to Gleissner's…
In this paper, using Zvonkin type transform, the large deviation principle is proved for stochastic differential equations with Dini continuous drifts, where the existed methods for large deviation principle are unavailable. The method and…
We consider compartmental models in epidemiology. For the study of the divergence of the stochastic model from its corresponding deterministic limit (i.e., the solution of an ODE) for long time horizon, a large deviations principle suggests…
Large deviation principles are established for the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution and two-parameter Dirichlet process when parameter $\theta$ approaches infinity. The motivation for these results is to understand the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
The Large Deviation Principle is established for stochastic models defined by past-dependent non linear recursions with small noise. In the Markov case we use the result to obtain an explicit expression for the asymptotics of exit time.
Recent work by Erik Volz [arXiv:0705.2092] has shown how to calculate the growth and eventual decay of an SIR epidemic on a static random network, assuming infection and recovery each happen at constant rates. This calculation allows us to…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…