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We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Marie Michaelides , Mélina Mailhot , Yongkun Li

Time-to-event semi-competing risk endpoints may be correlated when both events are occurring on the same individual. These events and the association between them may also be influenced by individual characteristics. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-07 Yinghui Wei , Malgorzata Wojtys , Lexy Sorrell , Peter Rowe

Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-11 Roxane Duroux , Cécile Chauvel , John O'Quigley

Handling highly dependent data is crucial in clinical trials, particularly in fields related to ophthalmology. Incorrectly specifying the dependency structure can lead to biased inferences. Traditionally, models rely on three fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Shuyi Liang , Takeshi Emura , Chang-Xing Ma , Yijing Xin , Xin-Wei Huang

Several procedures have been recently proposed to test the simplifying assumption for conditional copulas. Instead of considering pointwise conditioning events, we study the constancy of the conditional dependence structure when some…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Alexis Derumigny , Jean-David Fermanian , Aleksey Min

This paper proposes a new test for the comparison of conditional quantile curves when the outcome of interest, typically a duration, is subject to right censoring. The test can be applied both in the case of two independent samples and for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Lorenzo Tedesco , Ingrid Van Keilegom

A novel copula-based multivariate panel ordinal model is developed to estimate structural relations among components of well-being. Each ordinal time-series is modelled using a copula-based Markov model to relate the marginal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-02 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos , Emmanouil Mentzakis

Cardiovascular diseases are major causes of mortality globally. They often co-occur and are interrelated, leading to partial-order relationships among their onset times. However, these onset times are subject to informative censoring due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Tonghui Yu , Liming Xiang

This paper proposes a regression tree procedure to estimate conditional copulas. The associated algorithm determines classes of observations based on covariate values and fits a simple parametric copula model on each class. The association…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-20 Francesco Bonacina , Olivier Lopez , Maud Thomas

The study of times to nonterminal events of different types and their interrelation is a compelling area of interest. The primary challenge in analyzing such multivariate event times is the presence of informative censoring by the terminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Xinyuan Chen , Yiwei Li , Qian M. Zhou

We present new estimators for the statistical analysis of the dependence of the mean gap time length between consecutive recurrent events, on a set of explanatory random variables and in the presence of right censoring. The dependence is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-10 Ioana Schiopu-Kratina , Hai Yan Liu , Mayer Alvo , Pierre-Jerome Bergeron

We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We…

Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Rebecca Farina , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

In biomedical studies, paired survival data arise naturally when two event times are observed within the same subject. Existing statistical models seldom accommodate both cure fractions and complex dependence structures. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Masaki Hino , Shogo Kato , Takeshi Emura

Imputation is a popular approach to handling censored, missing, and error-prone covariates -- all coarsened data types for which the true values are unknown. However, there are nuances to imputing these different data types based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Sarah C. Lotspeich , Ethan M. Alt

This paper considers the problem of inferring the causal effect of a variable $Z$ on a dependently censored survival time $T$. We allow for unobserved confounding variables, such that the error term of the regression model for $T$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-02 Gilles Crommen , Jad Beyhum , Ingrid Van Keilegom

In the presence of right-censored data with covariates, the conditional Kaplan-Meier estimator (also known as the Beran estimator) consistently estimates the conditional survival function of the random follow-up for the event of interest.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-15 Mikael Escobar-Bach , Olivier Goudet

The pseudo-observations approach has been gaining popularity as a method to estimate covariate effects on censored survival data. It is used regularly to estimate covariate effects on quantities such as survival probabilities, restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-06 Yael Travis-Lumer , Micha Mandel , Rebecca A. Betensky

For the analysis of clustered survival data, two different types of models that take the association into account, are commonly used: frailty models and copula models. Frailty models assume that conditional on a frailty term for each…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-10 Leen Prenen , Roel Braekers , Luc Duchateau