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Having a regression model, we are interested in finding two-sided intervals that are guaranteed to contain at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable given a specific combination of predictors. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-22 Mohammad Ghasemi Hamed , Mathieu Serrurier , Nicolas Durand

Concentration inequalities have become increasingly popular in machine learning, probability, and statistical research. Using concentration inequalities, one can construct confidence intervals (CIs) for many quantities of interest.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Hien D. Nguyen

It is well known that it is impossible to construct useful confidence intervals (CIs) about the mean or median of a response $Y$ conditional on features $X = x$ without making strong assumptions about the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Jayoon Jang , Emmanuel Candès

The age of big data has produced data sets that are computationally expensive to analyze and store. Algorithmic leveraging proposes that we sample observations from the original data set to generate a representative data set and then…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-13 Katelyn Gao

We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-20 Philipp Ketz , Adam McCloskey

The problem is in the estimation of the fraction of population with a sensitive characteristic. We consider the Item Count Technique an indirect method of questioning designed to protect respondents' privacy. The exact confidence interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-21 Stanislaw Jaworski , Wojciech Zielinski

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Weizhen Wang , Chongxiu Yu , Zhongzhan Zhang

This paper studies higher-order inference properties of nonparametric local polynomial regression methods under random sampling. We prove Edgeworth expansions for $t$ statistics and coverage error expansions for interval estimators that (i)…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-26 Sebastian Calonico , Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell

When assessing the quality of prediction models in machine learning, confidence intervals (CIs) for the generalization error, which measures predictive performance, are a crucial tool. Luckily, there exist many methods for computing such…

By employing various empirical estimators for the Mutual Information (MI) measure, we calculate and compare the estimates and their confidence intervals for both normal and non-normal bivariate data samples. We find that certain nonlinear…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Theo Grigorenko , Leo Grigorenko

In an empirical Bayes analysis, we use data from repeated sampling to imitate inferences made by an oracle Bayesian with extensive knowledge of the data-generating distribution. Existing results provide a comprehensive characterization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Stefan Wager

This paper concerns the construction of confidence intervals in standard seroprevalence surveys. In particular, we discuss methods for constructing confidence intervals for the proportion of individuals in a population infected with a…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-05 Thomas J. DiCiccio , David M. Ritzwoller , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh

We consider the problem of adaptive inference on a regression function at a point under a multivariate nonparametric regression setting. The regression function belongs to a H\"older class and is assumed to be monotone with respect to some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Koohyun Kwon , Soonwoo Kwon

Nonparametric methods play a central role in modern empirical work. While they provide inference procedures that are more robust to parametric misspecification bias, they may be quite sensitive to tuning parameter choices. We study the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-27 Sebastian Calonico , Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell

This paper deals with the nonparametric density estimation of the regression error term assuming its independence with the covariate. The difference between the feasible estimator which uses the estimated residuals and the unfeasible one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-05 Rawane Samb

We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar `estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value' form, but we propose new methods…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-19 Ulrich K. Müller , Mark W. Watson

Confidence intervals for the means of multiple normal populations are often based on a hierarchical normal model. While commonly used interval procedures based on such a model have the nominal coverage rate on average across a population of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-28 Chaoyu Yu , Peter D. Hoff

Confidence estimation infers a probability for whether each model output is correct or not. While predicting such binary correctness is sensible for tasks with exact answers, free-form generation tasks are often more nuanced, with output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Chi-Yang Hsu , Alexander Braylan , Yiheng Su , Matthew Lease , Omar Alonso

Kernel-based nonparametric hazard rate estimation is considered with a special class of infinite-order kernels that achieves favorable bias and mean square error properties. A fully automatic and adaptive implementation of a density and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Arthur Berg , Dimitris N Politis , Kagba Suaray , Hui Zeng

We compare several confidence intervals after model selection in the setting recently studied by Berk et al. [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 802-837], where the goal is to cover not the true parameter but a certain nonstandard quantity of interest…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Hannes Leeb , Benedikt M. Pötscher , Karl Ewald