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We propose a new importance sampling framework for the estimation and analysis of Sobol' indices. We focus on the estimation of the conditional second-moment quantity underlying these indices, which is the most challenging term to estimate.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Haythem Boucharif , Jérôme Morio , Paul Rochet

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a recommended step in the use of computer simulation models. GSA quantifies the relative importance of model inputs on outputs (Factor Ranking), identifies inputs that could be fixed, thus simplifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Ken Newman , Shaini Naha , Leah Jackson-Blake , Cairistiona Topp , Miriam Glendell , Adam Butler

The R package "sensobol" provides several functions to conduct variance-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, from the estimation of sensitivity indices to the visual representation of the results. It implements several…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Arnald Puy , Samuele Lo Piano , Andrea Saltelli , Simon A. Levin

In this paper, we study sensitivity indices for independent groups of variables and we look at the particular case of block-additive models. We show in this case that most of the Sobol indices are equal to zero and that Shapley effects can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Baptiste Broto , François Bachoc , Marine Depecker , Jean-Marc Martinez

For models evaluated at a random set of independent variables, the variance-based Shapley effects range between Sobol' indices, and the corresponding total indices admit derivative-based upper-bounds. Such relationships fail when the inputs…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Matieyendou Lamboni

In the past decade, Sobol's variance decomposition have been used as a tool - among others - in risk management. We show some links between global sensitivity analysis and stochastic ordering theories. This gives an argument in favor of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Areski Cousin , Alexandre Janon , Véronique Maume-Deschamps , Ibrahima Niang

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) aims at quantifying the contribution of input variables over the variability of model outputs. In the frame of functional outputs, a common goal is to compute sensitivity maps (SM), i.e sensitivity indices…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-12 Yuri Sao , Olivier Roustant , Geraldo de Freitas Maciel

The Trotter-Suzuki decomposition is one of the main approaches for realization of quantum simulations on digital quantum computers. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (the Sobol method) is a wide used method which allows to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-01-12 Alexey N. Pyrkov , Yurii Zotov , Jiangyu Cui , Manhong Yung

In the context of air quality control, our objective is to quantify the impact of uncertain inputs such as meteorological conditions and traffic parameters on pollutant dispersion maps. It is worth noting that the majority of sensitivity…

Traditionally, the sensitivity analysis of a Bayesian network studies the impact of individually modifying the entries of its conditional probability tables in a one-at-a-time (OAT) fashion. However, this approach fails to give a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Rafael Ballester-Ripoll , Manuele Leonelli

This paper presents a simple noise correction method for Sobol' indices estimation. Sobol' indices, especially total Sobol' indices are quite sensitive to the noise in the output and tend to be severly biased (overestimated) if no noise…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-04 Pavel Prikhodko , Nikita Kotlyarov

Given-data methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis have significantly advanced the feasibility of Sobol' index computation for computationally expensive models and models with many inputs. However, the limitations of existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Teresa Portone , Bert Debusschere , Samantha Yang , Emiliano Islas-Quinones , T. Patrick Xiao

Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest. One of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-21 Pierre Etoré , Clémentine Prieur , Dang Khoi Pham , Long Li

The presence of uncertainties are inevitable in engineering design and analysis, where failure in understanding their effects might lead to the structural or functional failure of the systems. The role of global sensitivity analysis in this…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-24 Pramudita Satria Palar , Lavi Rizki Zuhal , Koji Shimoyama , Takeshi Tsuchiya

Sensitivity analysis helps identify which model inputs convey the most uncertainty to the model output. One of the most authoritative measures in global sensitivity analysis is the Sobol' total-order index, which can be computed with…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-30 Arnald Puy , William Becker , Samuele Lo Piano , Andrea Saltelli

We present an HSIC-based approach for global sensitivity analysis of broad classes of models with correlated and possibly function-valued inputs and outputs. To this end, we define the total HSIC sensitivity index: a bounded, interpretable,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Troy Larsen , Alen Alexanderian

Global variance-based reliability sensitivity indices arise from a variance decomposition of the indicator function describing the failure event. The first-order indices reflect the main effect of each variable on the variance of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

In the context of sensitivity analysis of complex phenomena in presence of uncertainty, we motivate and precise the idea of orienting the analysis towards a critical domain of the studied phenomenon. We make a brief history of related…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Hugo Raguet , Amandine Marrel

In this paper we develop a new approach to the design of direct numerical methods for multidimensional problems of the calculus of variations. The approach is based on a transformation of the problem with the use of a new class of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-04 M. V. Dolgopolik