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This work addresses the problem of conducting valid inference for additive and linear mixed models after model selection. One possible solution to overcome overconfident inference results after model selection is selective inference, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 David Rügamer , Philipp F. M. Baumann , Sonja Greven

Integrative analyses based on statistically relevant associations between genomics and a wealth of intermediary phenotypes (such as imaging) provide vital insights into their clinical relevance in terms of the disease mechanisms. Estimates…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-16 Snigdha Panigrahi , Shariq Mohammed , Arvind Rao , Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani

We propose new inference tools for forward stepwise regression, least angle regression, and the lasso. Assuming a Gaussian model for the observation vector y, we first describe a general scheme to perform valid inference after any selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 Ryan J. Tibshirani , Jonathan Taylor , Richard Lockhart , Robert Tibshirani

After selection with the Group LASSO (or generalized variants such as the overlapping, sparse, or standardized Group LASSO), inference for the selected parameters is unreliable in the absence of adjustments for selection bias. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Snigdha Panigrahi , Peter W. MacDonald , Daniel Kessler

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-06 Ritabrata Dutta , Paul Blomstedt , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

We develop a general approach to valid inference after model selection. At the core of our framework is a result that characterizes the distribution of a post-selection estimator conditioned on the selection event. We specialize the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Jason D. Lee , Dennis L. Sun , Yuekai Sun , Jonathan E. Taylor

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

Variable selection for regression models plays a key role in the analysis of biomedical data. However, inference after selection is not covered by classical statistical frequentist theory which assumes a fixed set of covariates in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Michael Kammer , Daniela Dunkler , Stefan Michiels , Georg Heinze

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-18 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden

To perform inference after model selection, we propose controlling the selective type I error; i.e., the error rate of a test given that it was performed. By doing so, we recover long-run frequency properties among selected hypotheses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-19 William Fithian , Dennis Sun , Jonathan Taylor

Statistical inference after model selection requires an inference framework that takes the selection into account in order to be valid. Following recent work on selective inference, we derive analytical expressions for inference after…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-26 David Rügamer , Sonja Greven

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

We develop methodology for valid inference after variable selection in logistic regression when the responses are partially observed, that is, when one observes a set of error-prone testing outcomes instead of the true values of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Qinyan Shen , Karl Gregory , Xianzheng Huang

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

We give a finite-sample analysis of predictive inference procedures after model selection in regression with random design. The analysis is focused on a statistically challenging scenario where the number of potentially important…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Hannes Leeb

Modeled along the truncated approach in Panigrahi (2016), selection-adjusted inference in a Bayesian regime is based on a selective posterior. Such a posterior is determined together by a generative model imposed on data and the selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor
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