Related papers: Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for Internat…
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…
Cross-border migration brings economic and cultural impacts to the origin and destination, and is also a key to reflect the international relations of related countries. In fact, the migration relationships of countries are complex and…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…
Neural machine translation (NMT) systems typically employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding to select the highest-scoring translation from the distribution mass. However, recent evidence highlights the inadequacy of MAP decoding, often…
The paper analyses international migration flows from the network perspective by the evaluation of centrality indices. In order to find the most influential countries in the international migration network classical centrality indices and…
Recently, there have been considerable efforts to use online data to investigate international migration. These efforts show that Web data are valuable for estimating migration rates and are relatively easy to obtain. However, existing…
Being able to model and forecast international migration as precisely as possible is crucial for policymaking. Recently Google Trends data in addition to other economic and demographic data have been shown to improve the forecasting quality…
A bibliometric approach is explored to tracking international scientific migration, based on an analysis of the affiliation countries of authors publishing in peer reviewed journals indexed in Scopus. The paper introduces a model that…
This paper studies international migration from a complex-network perspective. We define the international-migration network (IMN) as the weighted-directed graph where nodes are world countries and links account for the stock of migrants…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
Pearson's correlation coefficient is a popular statistical measure to summarize the strength of association between two continuous variables. It is usually interpreted via its square as percentage of variance of one variable predicted by…
Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…
Discrete optimal transportation problems arise in various contexts in engineering, the sciences and the social sciences. Often the underlying cost criterion is unknown, or only partly known, and the observed optimal solutions are corrupted…
This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with…
In this article we analyze the global flow of migrants from 206 source countries to 145 destination countries (2006-2010) and focus on the differences in the migration network pattern between destination and source counters as represented…