Related papers: Variational Bayesian Inference for Hidden Markov M…

In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging…

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

We consider probabilistic systems with hidden state and unobservable transitions, an extension of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that in particular admits unobservable {\epsilon}-transitions (also called null transitions), allowing state…

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) provides a flexible approach for non-linear dimensionality reduction that has been widely applied. However, the current approach for training GP-LVMs is based on maximum likelihood, where…

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…

With the symbolic framework of Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), the Markov Sequence Projector (MSP) is introduced to expand the evolution formula of Homogeneous Markov Chains (HMCs). The well-known weather example, a Visible Markov Model…

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

Hidden Markov Models (HMM) model a sequence of observations that are dependent on a hidden (or latent) state that follow a Markov chain. These models are widely used in diverse fields including ecology, speech recognition, and…

The EM procedure is a principal tool for parameter estimation in the hidden Markov models. However, applications replace EM by Viterbi extraction, or training (VT). VT is computationally less intensive, more stable and has more of an…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…

Expectation maximisation (EM) is an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture distribution. It works by introducing "hidden" or "latent" variables via Baum's auxiliary function $Q$ that allow the joint…

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Background: Baum-Welch training is an expectation-maximisation algorithm for training the emission and transition probabilities of hidden Markov models in a fully automated way. Methods and results: We introduce a linear space algorithm for…

Over-parameterized models, such as DeepNets and ConvNets, form a class of models that are routinely adopted in a wide variety of applications, and for which Bayesian inference is desirable but extremely challenging. Variational inference…

We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources.…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the…

Approximating complex probability densities is a core problem in modern statistics. In this paper, we introduce the concept of Variational Inference (VI), a popular method in machine learning that uses optimization techniques to estimate…

In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM)…

Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language…