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A prevalent problem in general state-space models is the approximation of the smoothing distribution of a state, or a sequence of states, conditional on the observations from the past, the present, and the future. The aim of this paper is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-03 Randal Douc , Aurelien Garivier , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Smoothing algorithms for state-space models, i.e., fixed-interval smoothing, fixed-lag smoothing, and two-filter formula for smoothing, are examined using real examples. For linear and Gaussian state-space models, it is observed that…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-10 G. Kitagawa

Computing smoothing distributions, the distributions of one or more states conditional on past, present, and future observations is a recurring problem when operating on general hidden Markov models. The aim of this paper is to provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-15 Randal Douc , Aurélien Garivier , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Recent paper by Balenzuela et al. presented an exact algorithm for computing the posterior distribution of current and future observations given the current state, $p(x_n|y_n,\ldots ,y_N)$, which is required when computing fixed-interval…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 G. Kitagawa

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t distributed measurement noise are presented. The proposed algorithms improve upon our earlier proposed filter and smoother using the mean field…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-22 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piche , Fredrik Gustafsson

Particle smoothers are widely used algorithms allowing to approximate the smoothing distribution in hidden Markov models. Existing algorithms often suffer from slow computational time or degeneracy. We propose in this paper a way to improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-28 Cyrille Dubarry , Randal Douc

This paper presents a method for calculating the smoothed state distribution for Jump Markov Linear Systems. More specifically, the paper details a novel two-filter smoother that provides closed-form expressions for the smoothed hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-21 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

To estimate the smoothing distribution in a nonlinear state space model, we apply the conditional particle filter with ancestor sampling. This gives an iterative algorithm in a Markov chain Monte Carlo fashion, with asymptotic convergence…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-17 Andreas Svensson , Thomas B. Schön , Manon Kok

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skewed and heavy-tailed measurement noise are presented. The algorithms use a variational Bayes approximation of the posterior distribution of models that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-06-30 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piché , Fredrik Gustafsson

For challenging state estimation problems arising in domains like vision and robotics, particle-based representations attractively enable temporal reasoning about multiple posterior modes. Particle smoothers offer the potential for more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Ali Younis , Erik B. Sudderth

We propose a new sampling-based approach for approximate inference in filtering problems. Instead of approximating conditional distributions with a finite set of states, as done in particle filters, our approach approximates the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Xuan Su , Wee Sun Lee , Zhen Zhang

Using a perturbation technique, we derive a new approximate filtering and smoothing methodology generalizing along different directions several existing approaches to robust filtering based on the score and the Hessian matrix of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 Giuseppe Buccheri , Giacomo Bormetti , Fulvio Corsi , Fabrizio Lillo

Particle filters are applicable to a wide range of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models and have already been applied to a variety of problems. However, there is a problem in the calculation of smoothed distributions, where particles…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-16 G. Kitagawa

This paper introduces the {\it particle swarm filter} (not to be confused with particle swarm optimization): a recursive and embarrassingly parallel algorithm that targets an approximation to the sequence of posterior predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-16 Taylor R. Brown

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t-distributed measurement noise are proposed. The algorithms use a variational Bayes based posterior approximation with coupled location and skewness…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-11-28 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piché , Fredrik Gustafsson

In this article, the two filter formula is re-examined in the setting of partially observed Gauss--Markov models. It is traditionally formulated as a filter running backward in time, where the Gaussian density is parametrized in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-03 Filip Tronarp

We consider the task of filtering a dynamic parameter evolving as a diffusion process, given data collected at discrete times from a likelihood which is conjugate to the marginal law of the diffusion, when a generic dual process on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Guillaume Kon Kam King , Andrea Pandolfi , Marco Piretto , Matteo Ruggiero

In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-22 Jian He , Asma Khedher , Peter Spreij

Stochastic approximation techniques have been used in various contexts in data science. We propose a stochastic version of the forward-backward algorithm for minimizing the sum of two convex functions, one of which is not necessarily…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-26 Patrick L. Combettes , Jean-Christophe Pesquet

We investigate the impact of filter choice on forecast accuracy in state space models. The filters are used both to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, via a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, and to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-21 Patrick Leung , Catherine S. Forbes , Gael M. Martin , Brendan McCabe
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