Related papers: Foreign exchange risk premia: from traditional to …
In the literature, insurance and reinsurance pricing is typically determined by a premium principle, characterized by a risk measure that reflects the policy seller's risk attitude. Building on the work of Meyers (1980) and Chen et al.…
Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…
In this article we look at stochastic processes with uncertain parameters, and consider different ways in which information is obtained when carrying out observations. For example we focus on the case of a the random evolution of a traded…
We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…
First-passage properties are central to the kinetics of target-search processes. Theoretical approaches so far primarily focused on predicting first-passage statistics for a given process or model. In practice, however, one faces the…
We study the problem of estimating time-varying coefficients in ordinary differential equations. Current theory only applies to the case when the associated state variables are observed without measurement errors as presented in…
Traditional machine learning methods have been widely studied in financial innovation. My study focuses on the application of deep learning methods on asset pricing. I investigate various deep learning methods for asset pricing, especially…
We study the invasion of an unstable state by a propagating front in a peculiar but generic situation where the invasion process exhibits a remnant instability. Here, remnant instability refers to the fact that the spatially constant…
Directional-change Intrinsic Time analysis has long revealed scaling laws in market microstructure, but the origin of their stability remains elusive. This article presents evidence that Intrinsic Time can be modeled as a memoryless…
This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…
We propose a partition-based state estimator for linear discrete-time systems composed by coupled subsystems affected by bounded disturbances. The architecture is distributed in the sense that each subsystem is equipped with a local state…
This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon…
We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap…
This paper develops numerical and causal interpretations of two-way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions in settings with nonbinary, nonstaggered treatments and time-varying covariates. Using the equivalence between TWFE and pooled…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…
A dynamic mean field theory is developed for finite state and action Bayesian reinforcement learning in the large state space limit. In an analogy with statistical physics, the Bellman equation is studied as a disordered dynamical system;…
We introduce a new version of deep state-space models (DSSMs) that combines a recurrent neural network with a state-space framework to forecast time series data. The model estimates the observed series as functions of latent variables that…
Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + \theta$, $\theta \in [-1/2,1/2]$, $\theta$ unknown but…
There exist several methods developed for the canonical change point problem of detecting multiple mean shifts, which search for changes over sections of the data at multiple scales. In such methods, estimation of the noise level is often…