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Related papers: Recursive Construction of Confidence Regions

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The problem of structured matrix estimation has been studied mostly under strong noise dependence assumptions. This paper considers a general framework of noisy low-rank-plus-sparse matrix recovery, where the noise matrix may come from any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jinhang Chai , Jianqing Fan

Predictive equivalence in discrete stochastic processes have been applied with great success to identify randomness and structure in statistical physics and chaotic dynamical systems and to inferring hidden Markov models. We examine the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-21 Samuel P. Loomis , James P. Crutchfield

We introduce a simple approach for testing the reliability of homogeneous generators and the Markov property of the stochastic processes underlying empirical time series of credit ratings. We analyze open access data provided by Moody's and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-30 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Pedro G. Lind , Tim Rogers

The main purpose is to estimate the regression function of a real random variable with functional explanatory variable by using a recursive nonparametric kernel approach. The mean square error and the almost sure convergence of a family of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-07 Aboubacar Amiri , Christophe Crambes , Baba Thiam

The success of generative modeling in continuous domains has led to a surge of interest in generating discrete data such as molecules, source code, and graphs. However, construction histories for these discrete objects are typically not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Ari Seff , Wenda Zhou , Farhan Damani , Abigail Doyle , Ryan P. Adams

Reversible Markov chains play a central role in stochastic modelling and in algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivated by the fundamental importance of reversibility in classical settings, this paper develops a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Damjan Škulj

Construction of tight confidence regions and intervals is central to statistical inference and decision making. This paper develops new theory showing minimum average volume confidence regions for categorical data. More precisely, consider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-01 Matthew L. Malloy , Ardhendu Tripathy , Robert D. Nowak

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We study rate of convergence of recursive estimation procedures for the general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Teo Sharia

This paper studies the problem of recursively estimating the weighted adjacency matrix of a network out of a temporal sequence of binary-valued observations. The observation sequence is generated from nonlinear networked dynamics in which…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-06 Yu Xing , Xingkang He , Haitao Fang , Karl Henrik Johansson

This work presents a novel simulation-based approach for constructing confidence regions in parametric models, which is particularly suited for generative models and situations where limited data and conventional asymptotic approximations…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Elena Bortolato , Laura Ventura

Discrete-time models are very convenient to simulate a nonlinear system on a computer. In order to build the discrete-time simulation models for the nonlinear feedback systems (which is a very important class of systems in many…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-05-15 Rishi Relan , Johan Schoukens

Point process modeling is gaining increasing attention, as point process type data are emerging in numerous scientific applications. In this article, motivated by a neuronal spike trains study, we propose a novel point process regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-10 Xiwei Tang , Lexin Li

We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-01-05 Marco Cuturi , Arnaud Doucet

Causal reversibility blends reversibility and causality for concurrent systems. It indicates that an action can be undone provided that all of its consequences have been undone already, thus making it possible to bring the system back to a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Marco Bernardo , Claudio A. Mezzina

We consider a recursive algorithm to construct an aggregated estimator from a finite number of base decision rules in the classification problem. The estimator approximately minimizes a convex risk functional under the l1-constraint. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Anatoli Juditsky , Alexander Nazin , Alexandre Tsybakov , Nicolas Vayatis

Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and Master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model relies heavily on the reversibility…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-09-23 Benjamin Trendelkamp-Schroer , Hao Wu , Fabian Paul , Frank Noé

Reservoir computing (RC) harnesses the intrinsic dynamics of a chaotic system, called the reservoir, to perform various time-varying functions. An important use-case of RC is the generation of target temporal sequences via a trainable…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-11-07 Daoyuan Qian , Ila Fiete

Regression modeling is the workhorse of statistics and there is a vast literature on estimation of the regression function. It is realized in recent years that in regression analysis the ultimate aim may be the estimation of a level set of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Fang Wan , Wei Liu , Frank Bretz

In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Rainer Dahlhaus , Suhasini Subba Rao

Sequential learning systems are used in a wide variety of problems from decision making to optimization, where they provide a 'belief' (opinion) to nature, and then update this belief based on the feedback (result) to minimize (or maximize)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Kaan Gokcesu , Hakan Gokcesu