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Related papers: When should an expert make a prediction?

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We examine the strategic interaction between an expert (principal) maximizing engagement and an agent seeking swift information. Our analysis reveals: When priors align, relative patience determines optimal disclosure -- impatient agents…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-07-30 Maryam Saeedi , Yikang Shen , Ali Shourideh

An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-08-20 Yonatan Berman , Mark Kirstein

There is increasing regulatory interest in whether machine learning algorithms deployed in consequential domains (e.g. in criminal justice) treat different demographic groups "fairly." However, there are several proposed notions of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-02-19 Christopher Jung , Sampath Kannan , Changhwa Lee , Mallesh M. Pai , Aaron Roth , Rakesh Vohra

Many high-stakes AI deployments proceed only if every stakeholder deems the system acceptable relative to their own minimum standard. With randomization over a finite menu of options, this becomes a feasibility question: does there exist a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Davin Choo , Paul W. Goldberg , Nicholas Teh

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah

In prediction with expert advice the goal is to design online prediction algorithms that achieve small regret (additional loss on the whole data) compared to a reference scheme. In the simplest such scheme one compares to the loss of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-08-27 Wouter M. Koolen , Tim van Erven

Constructing general knowledge by learning task-independent models of the world can help agents solve challenging problems. However, both constructing and evaluating such models remains an open challenge. The most common approaches to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-15 Alex Kearney , Anna Koop , Patrick M. Pilarski

We design online algorithms for the fair allocation of public goods to a set of $N$ agents over a sequence of $T$ rounds and focus on improving their performance using predictions. In the basic model, a public good arrives in each round,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Siddhartha Banerjee , Vasilis Gkatzelis , Safwan Hossain , Billy Jin , Evi Micha , Nisarg Shah

Given that Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly permeates our lives, it is critical that we systematically align AI objectives with the goals and values of humans. The human-AI alignment problem stems from the impracticality of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-07-05 John Nay , James Daily

A key problem in structured output prediction is direct optimization of the task reward function that matters for test evaluation. This paper presents a simple and computationally efficient approach to incorporate task reward into a maximum…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-05 Mohammad Norouzi , Samy Bengio , Zhifeng Chen , Navdeep Jaitly , Mike Schuster , Yonghui Wu , Dale Schuurmans

Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-25 Maja R. Rudolph , Joseph G. Ellis , David M. Blei

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents sequentially interact with changing environments while aiming to maximize the obtained rewards. Usually, rewards are observed only after acting, and so the goal is to maximize the expected cumulative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Nadav Merlis , Dorian Baudry , Vianney Perchet

We consider sequential decision problems in which we adaptively choose one of finitely many alternatives and observe a stochastic reward. We offer a new perspective of interpreting Bayesian ranking and selection problems as adaptive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-16 Yingfei Wang , Warren Powell

Machine learning relies on the assumption that unseen test instances of a classification problem follow the same distribution as observed training data. However, this principle can break down when machine learning is used to make important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-24 Moritz Hardt , Nimrod Megiddo , Christos Papadimitriou , Mary Wootters

In this work we study the problem of inferring a discrete probability distribution using both expert knowledge and empirical data. This is an important issue for many applications where the scarcity of data prevents a purely empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Rémi Besson , Erwan Le Pennec , Stéphanie Allassonnière

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-03 Seamus Somerstep , Ya'acov Ritov , Yuekai Sun

We study a sequential decision-making model where a set of items is repeatedly matched to the same set of agents over multiple rounds. The objective is to determine a sequence of matchings that either maximizes the utility of the least…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Eugene Lim , Tzeh Yuan Neoh , Nicholas Teh

Participatory Budgeting (PB) is commonly studied from an axiomatic perspective, where the aim is to design procedurally fair and economically efficient rules for voters with full information regarding their preferences. In contrast, we take…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Qishen Han , Artem Ivaniuk , Edith Elkind , Lirong Xia

We study the design of optimal incentives in sequential processes. To do so, we consider a basic and fundamental model in which an agent initiates a value-creating sequential process through costly investment with random success. If…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-11-22 Jens Gudmundsson , Jens Leth Hougaard , Juan D. Moreno-Ternero , Lars Peter Østerdal

Strategic classification studies learning in settings where self-interested users can strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. A key working assumption, however, is that "favorable" always means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sagi Levanon , Nir Rosenfeld