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Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modelling. Existing methods for uncertainty modelling face a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Yao Ni , Jeremie Houssineau , Yew Soon Ong , Piotr Koniusz

We review some of the properties of higher-dimensional superstatistical stochastic models. As an example, we analyse the stochastic properties of a superstatistical model of 3-dimensional Lagrangian turbulence, and compare with experimental…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Christian Beck

Verification is crucial for effective mathematical reasoning. We present a new temporal consistency method where verifiers iteratively refine their judgments based on the previous assessment. Unlike one-round verification or multi-model…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Jiacheng Guo , Yue Wu , Jiahao Qiu , Kaixuan Huang , Xinzhe Juan , Ling Yang , Mengdi Wang

Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jonas Krampe , Efstathios Paparoditis

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates

This study presents an efficient, accurate, effective and unconditionally stable time stepping scheme for the Darcy-Brinkman equations in double-diffusive convection. The stabilization within the proposed method uses the idea of stabilizing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-10 Aytekin Çıbık , Medine Demir , Songul Kaya

We introduce a novel varying-weight dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) model that extends a recently developed semi-parametric generalized linear model (SPGLM) by adding a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the baseline distribution of the GLM.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Entejar Alam , Paul J. Rathouz , Peter Mueller

We establish sharp well-posedness and approximation estimates for variational saddle point systems at the continuous level. The main results of this note have been known to be true only in the finite dimensional case. Known spectral results…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-11-04 Constantin Bacuta

The training of machine learning models is typically carried out using some form of gradient descent, often with great success. However, non-asymptotic analyses of first-order optimization algorithms typically employ a gradient smoothness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Thomas Flynn

Most stochastic gradient descent algorithms can optimize neural networks that are sub-differentiable in their parameters; however, this implies that the neural network's activation function must exhibit a degree of continuity which limits…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Anastasis Kratsios , Behnoosh Zamanlooy

Statistical models and methods for determinantal point processes (DPPs) seem largely unexplored. We demonstrate that DPPs provide useful models for the description of spatial point pattern datasets where nearby points repel each other. Such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-28 Frédéric Lavancier , Jesper Møller , Ege Rubak

Multiple clustering has gathered significant attention in recent years due to its potential to reveal multiple hidden structures of the data from different perspectives. Most of multiple clustering methods first derive feature…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-09 Jiawei Yao , Juhua Hu

We give a new integral characterization of the Dirichlet process on a general phase space. To do so we first prove a characterization of the nonsymmetric Beta distribution via size-biased sampling. Two applications are a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-02 Günter Last

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-08 Pengyu Wang , Phil Blunsom

This paper studies the problem of stability of a parameterized delay differential equations (DDE see equation (0.1)). After discretizing the DDE (0.1), we show that the problem can be equivalently casted into a semi-definite programming…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-03 Dongcai Su

In many stochastic models, the observables of interest are naturally encoded in double transforms (e.g., Laplace transforms) that couple spatial and temporal variables. Notably, the double transform often provides the only analytically…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Giampaolo Cristadoro , Gaia Pozzoli

Despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems often exhibit seemingly random behaviour. Consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model of which the unknown parameters must be estimated using…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-08-20 Kasun Fernando , Nan Zou

We introduce Deep Sigma Point Processes, a class of parametric models inspired by the compositional structure of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) retain many of the attractive features of (variational)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

Economic policy and research rely on the correct evaluation of the billions of high-frequency data points that we collect every day. Consistent clustering algorithms, like DBSCAN, allow us to make sense of the data in a useful way. However,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Nicholas Waltz

Large deviation theory provides the framework to study the probability of rare fluctuations of time-averaged observables, opening new avenues of research in nonequilibrium physics. One of the most appealing results within this context are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-20 R. Hurtado-Gutiérrez , P. I. Hurtado , C. Pérez-Espigares