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Time series forecasting is crucial for applications like resource scheduling and risk management, where multi-step predictions provide a comprehensive view of future trends. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a mainstream approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Qingdi Yu , Zhiwei Cao , Ruihang Wang , Zhen Yang , Lijun Deng , Min Hu , Yong Luo , Xin Zhou

A Lagrange Theorem in dimension 2 is proved, for a particular two-dimensional algorithm, with a very natural geometrical definition. Dirichlet-type properties for the convergence of the algorithm are also proved. These properties procced…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-17 Christian Drouin

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Masahiro Kato , Shota Yasui , Kenichiro McAlinn

In binary-transaction data-mining, traditional frequent itemset mining often produces results which are not straightforward to interpret. To overcome this problem, probability models are often used to produce more compact and conclusive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-27 Ruefei He , Jonathan Shapiro

Posterior computation in hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models is an active area of research in nonparametric Bayes inference of grouped data. Existing literature almost exclusively focuses on the Chinese restaurant franchise…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-06 Snigdha Das , Yabo Niu , Yang Ni , Bani K. Mallick , Debdeep Pati

We study the stability of accuracy during the training of deep neural networks (DNNs). In this context, the training of a DNN is performed via the minimization of a cross-entropy loss function, and the performance metric is accuracy (the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Yitzchak Shmalo

Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We consider the sequential sampling of species, where observed samples are classified into the species they belong to. We are particularly interested in studying some quantities describing the sampling process when there is a new species…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Servet Martínez , Javier Santibáñez

Dirichlet process (DP) mixture models provide a flexible Bayesian framework for density estimation. Unfortunately, their flexibility comes at a cost: inference in DP mixture models is computationally expensive, even when conjugate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-07-13 Hal Daumé

The paper is concerned with asymptotic properties of the principal components analysis of functional data. The currently available results assume the existence of the fourth moment. We develop analogous results in a setting which does not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Piotr Kokoszka , Stilian Stoev , Qian Xiong

In this article we establish two fundamental results for the sublevel set persistent homology for stationary processes indexed by the positive integers. The first is a strong law of large numbers for the persistence diagram (treated as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Andrew M. Thomas

We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-15 Theodoros Tsiligkaridis , Keith W. Forsythe

We consider the estimation of Dirichlet Process Mixture Models (DPMMs) in distributed environments, where data are distributed across multiple computing nodes. A key advantage of Bayesian nonparametric models such as DPMMs is that they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-20 Ruohui Wang , Dahua Lin

The pursuit of robustness has recently been a popular topic in reinforcement learning (RL) research, yet the existing methods generally suffer from efficiency issues that obstruct their real-world implementation. In this paper, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Yang Hu , Haitong Ma , Bo Dai , Na Li

Directional data require specialized probability models because of the non-Euclidean and periodic nature of their domain. When a directional variable is observed jointly with linear variables, modeling their dependence adds an additional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Tong Zou , Hal S. Stern

The paper presents a new perspective on the mixture of Dirichlet process model which allows the recovery of full and correct uncertainty quantification associated with the full model, even after having integrated out the random distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Blake Moya , Stephen G. Walker

We begin by reviewing some probabilistic results about the Dirichlet Process and its close relatives, focussing on their implications for statistical modelling and analysis. We then introduce a class of simple mixture models in which…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-03-23 Peter J. Green

This paper proposes a novel parallel stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method that is obtained by applying parallel sets of SGD iterations (each set operating on one node using the data residing in it) for finding the direction in each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-05 Dhruv Mahajan , S. Sathiya Keerthi , S. Sundararajan , Leon Bottou

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Arman Mohammadi , Mattias Krysander , Daniel Jung , Erik Frisk

Optimization objectives in the form of a sum of intractable expectations are rising in importance (e.g., diffusion models, variational autoencoders, and many more), a setting also known as "finite sum with infinite data." For these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-13 Kyurae Kim , Joohwan Ko , Yi-An Ma , Jacob R. Gardner