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Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Antoine Lotz

This paper is the second in a series of papers which combine graphical modelling and marked spatial point patterns. Extending the previous results of \cite Eckardt (2016a), we introduce a marked spatial dependence graph model which depicts…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-29 Matthias Eckardt , Jorge Mateu

While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-26 Ishanu Chattopadhyay

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

We derive exact analytical expressions for the cumulants of any orders of neuronal membrane potentials driven by spike trains in a multivariate Hawkes process model with excitation and inhibition. Such expressions can be used for the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-30 Nicolas Privault , Michèle Thieullen

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-28 Magda Gregorová , Alexandros Kalousis , Stéphane Marchand-Maillet

Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-09 Peter Boyd , James Molyneux

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

A major challenge for causal inference from time-series data is the trade-off between computational feasibility and accuracy. Motivated by process motifs for lagged covariance in an autoregressive model with slow mean-reversion, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Alice C. Schwarze , Sara M. Ichinaga , Bingni W. Brunton

Generalized evolutionary point processes offer a class of point process models that allows for either excitation or inhibition based upon the history of the process. In this regard, we propose modeling which comprises generalization of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-06 Philip A. White , Alan E. Gelfand

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

Granger causality, commonly used for inferring causal structures from time series data, has been adopted in widespread applications across various fields due to its intuitive explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

Most statistical models for networks focus on pairwise interactions between nodes. However, many real-world networks involve higher-order interactions among multiple nodes, such as co-authors collaborating on a paper. Hypergraphs provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Yichao Chen , Jingfei Zhang , Ji Zhu

Point processes in time have a wide range of applications that include the claims arrival process in insurance or the analysis of queues in operations research. Due to advances in technology, such samples of point processes are increasingly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-14 Álvaro Gajardo , Hans-Georg Müller

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Manisha Dubey , Ragja Palakkadavath , P. K. Srijith

The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Jayesh Malaviya

The stationarity is assumed in vanilla Hawkes process, which reduces the model complexity but introduces a strong assumption. In this paper, we propose a fast multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to capture the time-varying…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-07 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

We here focus on the task of learning Granger causality matrices for multivariate point processes. In order to accomplish this task, our work is the first to explore the use of Wold processes. By doing so, we are able to develop…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Flavio Figueiredo , Guilherme Borges , Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo , Renato M. Assunção