Related papers: Volatility Forecasts Using Nonlinear Leverage Effe…

We provide and axiomatize a representation for preferences over lotteries that generalizes the expected utility model. Since the representation uses different utility functions to evaluate different lotteries, the preferences can be…

Recently Carr and Wu (2004, 2005) and also Huang and Wu (2004) show that most stochastic processes used in traditional option pricing models can be cast as special cases of time-changed L\'evy processes. In particular these are models which…

Statistical inference about the average effect in random-effects meta-analysis has been considered insufficient in the presence of substantial between-study heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are well-suited for quantifying…

Pearson correlation and mutual information based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of US S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed in order to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We…

This paper introduces a methodology for constructing a market index composed of a liquid risky asset and a liquid risk-free asset that achieves a fixed target volatility. Existing volatility-targeting strategies typically scale portfolio…

Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

We consider the prediction of weak effects in a multiple-output regression setup, when covariates are expected to explain a small amount, less than $\approx 1%$, of the variance of the target variables. To facilitate the prediction of the…

This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…

In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic,…

Lead/lag relationships are an important stylized fact at high frequency. Some assets follow the path of others with a small time lag. We provide indicators to measure this phenomenon using tick-by-tick data. Strongly asymmetric…

We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…

Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…

As the dynamic structure of the financial markets is subject to dramatic changes, a model capable of providing consistently accurate volatility estimates must not make strong assumptions on how prices change over time. Most volatility…

Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…

Models allowing for random heterogeneity, such as mixed logit and latent class, are generally observed to obtain superior model fit and yield detailed insights into unobserved preference heterogeneity. Using theoretical arguments and two…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalised scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

It is now widely accepted that volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect in order to to model the dynamics of daily financial returns.We suggest a new class of multivariate power transformed asymmetric models. It…