Related papers: Large deviations of continuous regular conditional…
Let $(g_{n})_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed $d\times d$ real random matrices with Lyapunov exponent $\gamma$. For any starting point $x$ on the unit sphere in $\mathbb R^d$, we deal with the norm $ | G_n x |…
This paper presents a sharp approximation of the density of long runs of a random walk conditioned on its end value or by an average of a function of its summands as their number tends to infinity. In the large deviation range of the…
If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…
We consider the problem of estimating the support size of a distribution $D$. Our investigations are pursued through the lens of distribution testing and seek to understand the power of conditional sampling (denoted as COND), wherein one is…
Functionals in geometric probability are often expressed as sums of bounded functions exhibiting exponential stabilization. Methods based on cumulant techniques and exponential modifications of measures show that such functionals satisfy…
We study the large deviations principle for one dimensional, continuous, homogeneous, strong Markov processes that do not necessarily behave locally as a Wiener process. Any strong Markov process $X_{t}$ in $\mathbb{R}$ that is continuous…
The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…
In this paper, we establish large deviation principle for the strong solution of a doubly nonlinear PDE driven by small multiplicative Brownian noise. Motononicity arguments and the weak convergence approach have been exploited in the…
We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of invariant probability measures for generic stochastic differential equations with finite time delay. This is achieved by means of the Krylov-Bogoliubov method. Furthermore, we focus on…
We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal…
Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…
We present a domain-theoretic framework for probabilistic programming that provides a constructive definition of conditional probability and addresses computability challenges previously identified in the literature. We introduce a novel…
We study large deviation probabilities for a sum of dependent random variables from a heavy-tailed factor model, assuming that the components are regularly varying. We identify conditions where both the factor and the idiosyncratic terms…
Large random matrices appear in different fields of mathematics and physics such as combinatorics, probability theory, statistics, operator theory, number theory, quantum field theory, string theory etc... In the last ten years, they…
We establish the Level-1 and Level-3 Large Deviation Principles (LDPs) for invariant measures on shift spaces over finite alphabets under very general decoupling conditions for which the thermodynamic formalism does not apply. Such…
We prove large deviations principles for spectral measures of perturbed (or spiked) matrix models in the direction of an eigenvector of the perturbation. In each model under study, we provide two approaches, one of which relying on large…
Let $(X,d)$ be a compact metric space. We consider the behavior of probability measures $\mu$ with the property that $$ \int_{X} d(x, y) d\mu(y) \qquad \mbox{is independent of}~x \in X.$$ It appears that such measures, when they exist,…
This paper analyzes independence concepts for sets of probability measures associated with directed acyclic graphs. The paper shows that epistemic independence and the standard Markov condition violate desirable separation properties. The…
We construct and study branching Markov processes on the space of finite configurations of the state space of a given standard process, controlled by a branching kernel and a killing one. In particular, we may start with a superprocess,…
We recover the Donsker-Varadhan large deviations principle (LDP) for the empirical measure of a continuous time Markov chain on a countable (finite or infinite) state space from the joint LDP for the empirical measure and the empirical flow…