Related papers: Wrong-Way Risk Models: A Comparison of Analytical …
Recent advances in causal mediation analysis have formalized conditions for estimating direct and indirect effects in various contexts. These approaches have been extended to a number of models for survival outcomes including accelerated…
Although climate and nature related scenario analysis is increasingly important in finance, operational implementations remain limited for translating long horizon environmental scenarios into counterparty credit risk measures used in…
Bank behaviour is important for pricing XVA because it links different counterparties and thus breaks the usual XVA pricing assumption of counterparty independence. Consider a typical case of a bank hedging a client trade via a CCP. On…
Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…
We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be…
We consider discrete default intensity based and logit type reduced form models for conditional default probabilities for corporate loans where we develop simple closed form approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when the…
This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy…
Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…
We study a first-order primal-dual subgradient method to optimize risk-constrained risk-penalized optimization problems, where risk is modeled via the popular conditional value at risk (CVaR) measure. The algorithm processes independent and…
A key goal of the System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) hazard analysis technique is the identification of loss scenarios - causal factors that could potentially lead to an accident. We propose an approach that aims to assist engineers…
In this paper, we provide a solution to two problems which have been open in default time modeling in credit risk. We first show that if $\tau$ is an arbitrary random (default) time such that its Az\'ema's supermartingale…
This study contributes to understanding Valuation Adjustments (xVA) by focussing on the dynamic hedging of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), corresponding Profit & Loss (P&L) and the P&L explain. This is done in a Monte Carlo simulation…
This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…
We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
Credit value adjustment (CVA) is the charge applied by financial institutions to the counterparty to cover the risk of losses on a counterpart default event. In this paper we estimate such a premium under the Bates stochastic model (Bates…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
We study counterfactual prediction under assignment bias and propose a mathematically grounded, information-theoretic approach that removes treatment-covariate dependence without adversarial training. Starting from a bound that links the…
Valuation adjustments, collectively named XVA, play an important role in modern derivatives pricing to take into account additional price components such as counterparty and funding risk premia. They are an exotic price component carrying a…
We prove that the default times (or any of their minima) in the dynamic Gaussian copula model of Cr{\'e}pey, Jeanblanc, and Wu (2013) are invariance times in the sense of Cr{\'e}pey and Song (2017), with related invariance probability…