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Bayesian networks faithfully represent the symmetric conditional independences existing between the components of a random vector. Staged trees are an extension of Bayesian networks for categorical random vectors whose graph represents…
We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…
Several structural learning algorithms for staged tree models, an asymmetric extension of Bayesian networks, have been defined. However, they do not scale efficiently as the number of variables considered increases. Here we introduce the…
Layered treewidth and row treewidth are recently introduced graph parameters that have been key ingredients in the solution of several well-known open problems. It follows from the definitions that the layered treewidth of a graph is at…
The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…
Humans can learn languages from remarkably little experience. Developing computational models that explain this ability has been a major challenge in cognitive science. Bayesian models that build in strong inductive biases - factors that…
The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the…
Bayesian neural networks perform variational inference over the weights however calculation of the posterior distribution remains a challenge. Our work builds on variational inference techniques for bayesian neural networks using the…
Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models widely employed to understand dependencies in high dimensional data, and even to facilitate causal discovery. Learning the underlying network structure, which is encoded as a directed…
We introduce a principled approach for unsupervised structure learning of deep neural networks. We propose a new interpretation for depth and inter-layer connectivity where conditional independencies in the input distribution are encoded…
Bayesian approaches to learn the graphical structure of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) from databases share the assumption that the database is complete, that is, no entry is reported as unknown. Attempts to relax this assumption involve…
We define a special case of tree decompositions for planar graphs that respect a given embedding of the graph. We study the analogous width of the resulting decomposition we call the embedded-width of a plane graph. We show both upper…
We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…
The continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) represent a class of stochastic processes, which can be used to model complex phenomena, for instance, they can describe interactions occurring in living processes, in social science models or…
We take a Bayesian perspective to illustrate a connection between training speed and the marginal likelihood in linear models. This provides two major insights: first, that a measure of a model's training speed can be used to estimate its…
The problem of learning discrete Bayesian networks from data is encoded as a weighted MAX-SAT problem and the MaxWalkSat local search algorithm is used to address it. For each dataset, the per-variable summands of the (BDeu) marginal…
Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…
Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the…
Bayesian networks are now being used in enormous fields, for example, diagnosis of a system, data mining, clustering and so on. In spite of their wide range of applications, the statistical properties have not yet been clarified, because…
A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…