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Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The use of improper priors in the context of Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed models has been studied under the assumption of normality of the random effects. We study the propriety of the posterior under more flexible distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-24 F. J. Rubio

In the Bayesian literature, a line of research called resolution of conflict is about the characterization of robustness against outliers of statistical models. The robustness characterization of a model is achieved by establishing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Philippe Gagnon

High dimensional statistics deals with the challenge of extracting structured information from complex model settings. Compared with the growing number of frequentist methodologies, there are rather few theoretically optimal Bayes methods…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Chao Gao , Aad W. van der Vaart , Harrison H. Zhou

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Our goal is to develop a Bayesian model averaging technique in linear regression models that accommodates heavier tailed error densities than the normal distribution. Motivated by the use of the Huber loss function in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We introduce a general class of continuous univariate distributions with positive support obtained by transforming the class of two-piece distributions. We show that this class of distributions is very flexible, easy to implement, and…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-06 Francisco J. Rubio , Yili Hong

Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Julyan Arbel , Antonio Lijoi , Bernardo Nipoti

Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We introduce a numerically tractable formulation of Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The longitudinal process is modelled using generalised linear mixed models, while the survival process is modelled using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-23 Danilo Alvares , Francisco Javier Rubio

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

In this work we apply the methodology of integral priors to handle Bayesian model selection in binomial regression models with a general link function. These models are very often used to investigate associations and risks in…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-01 Diego Salmeron , Juan Antonio Cano , C. P. Robert

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes

We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Ryan Martin , Raymond Mess , Stephen G. Walker

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Guido Consonni , Laura Deldossi

Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has become increasingly important in medical research, particularly for understanding disease progression in chronic conditions where both repeated biomarker measurements and time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Nithisha Suryadevara , Vivek Reddy Srigiri

For two vast families of mixture distributions and a given prior, we provide unified representations of posterior and predictive distributions. Model applications presented include bivariate mixtures of Gamma distributions labelled as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-09 Aziz LMoudden , Éric Marchand