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This paper addresses uncertainty quantification (UQ) for problems where scalar (or low-dimensional vector) response quantities are insufficient and, instead, full-field (very high-dimensional) responses are of interest. To do so, an…
In inverse problems, uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with a probabilistic description of the solution nonuniqueness and data noise sensitivity. Setting seismic imaging into a Bayesian framework allows for a principled way of studying…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…
This work presents novel extensions for combining two frameworks for quantifying both aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) and epistemic (i.e., reducible) sources of uncertainties in the modeling of engineered systems. The data-consistent (DC)…
It is critical and challenging to design robust predictors for stochastic dynamical systems (SDSs) with uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the prediction. Specifically, robustness guarantees the worst-case performance when the predictor's…
This paper focuses on the problem of quantifying the effects of model-structure uncertainty in the context of time-evolving dynamical systems. This is motivated by multi-model uncertainty in computer physics simulations: developers often…
This paper provides a comparative study of modern uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. To greatly enhance real-time performance, both differential algebra (DA) and a directional differential algebra (DDA) approach are employed. This can…
Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in probabilistic modeling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They allow us to integrate in a natural way expert knowledge, physical modeling, heterogeneous and correlated…
We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…
How can we quantify uncertainty if our favorite computational tool - be it a numerical, a statistical, or a machine learning approach, or just any computer model - provides single-valued output only? In this article, we introduce the Easy…
There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B)…
In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…
Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…
This paper provides statistical guarantees on the accuracy of dynamical models learned from dependent data sequences. Specifically, we develop uniform error bounds that apply to quantized models and imperfect optimization algorithms…
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial for ensuring the reliability of automated image segmentations in safety-critical domains like biomedical image analysis or autonomous driving. In segmentation, UQ generates pixel-wise uncertainty…
Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…
Robust optimization is a method for optimization under uncertainties in engineering systems and designs for applications ranging from aeronautics to nuclear. In a robust design process, parameter variability (or uncertainty) is incorporated…
It is necessary to estimate the expected energy usage of a building to determine how to reduce energy usage. The expected energy usage of a building can be reliably simulated using a Building Energy Model (BEM). Many of the numerous input…