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Dengue fever poses a persistent public health challenge in rapidly urbanizing Indian cities such as Ahmedabad, where spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variability complicate forecasting and control. In this study, we develop a data-driven…
A dynamical epidemic model optimized using genetic algorithm and cross validation method to overcome the overfitting problem is proposed. The cross validation procedure is applied so that available data are split into a training subset used…
In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with…
We analyze an epidemiological model to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple means of control in malaria-endemic areas. The mathematical model consists of a system of several ordinary differential equations, and is based on a…
In this paper we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach for studying the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other cities, regions or countries could have been…
This paper studies epidemic processes over discrete-time periodic time-varying networks. We focus on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that accounts for a (possibly) mutating virus. We say that an agent is in the disease-free…
There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of…
Wolbachia is a natural bacterium that can infect mosquitoes and reduce their ability to transmit mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya. Field trials and modeling studies have shown that the fraction of…
Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…
An agent-based model of population dynamics is presented. The model has as its expected behaviour the population dynamics of the equation-based Webworld model, within which large communities of species can be grown on evolutionary time…
A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing…
Managing infectious diseases is a world public health issue, plagued by uncertainties. In this paper, we analyze the problem of viable control of a dengue outbreak under uncertainty. For this purpose, we develop a controlled Ross-Macdonald…
This methods article concerns analysing data generated from running experiments on agent based models to study industries and organisations. It demonstrates that when researchers study virtual ecologies they can and should discard…
This paper reports a case study of an application of high-resolution agent-based modeling and simulation to pandemic response planning on a university campus. In the summer of 2020, we were tasked with a COVID-19 pandemic response project…
We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression $SEIR$ framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an $SI$ framework. The proposed model describes the evolution…
We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate…
The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is significant in under-developed regions, mostly due to the lack of resources to implement aggressive control measurements against mosquito proliferation. A potential strategy to raise community…
The data for the Ebola outbreak that occurred in 2014-2016 in three countries of West Africa are analysed within a common framework. The analysis is made using the results of an agent based Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model on a…
Biological control strategies against mosquito-borne diseases--such as the sterile insect technique (SIT), RIDL, and Wolbachia-based releases--require reliable estimates of dispersal and survival of released males. We propose a…
We consider the problem of controlling the group behavior of a large number of dynamic systems that are constantly interacting with each other. These systems are assumed to have identical dynamics (e.g., birds flock, robot swarm) and their…