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Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Jonathan Rougier

We propose a method for approximating the large deviation rate function of time-integrated observables of diffusion processes, used in statistical physics to characterize the fluctuations of nonequilibrium systems. The method is based on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-15 Pelerine Tsobgni Nyawo , Hugo Touchette

We propose a new method for estimating rare event probabilities when independent samples are available. It is assumed that the underlying probability measures satisfy a large deviations principle with a scaling parameter $\varepsilon$ that…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-06 Paul Dupuis , Guo-Jhen Wu , Michael Snarski

Simulations of systems with quenched disorder are extremely demanding, suffering from the combined effect of slow relaxation and the need of performing the disorder average. As a consequence, new algorithms, improved implementations, and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-05-20 Ravinder Kumar , Jonathan Gross , Wolfhard Janke , Martin Weigel

We introduce an algorithm to systematically improve the efficiency of parallel tempering Monte Carlo simulations by optimizing the simulated temperature set. Our approach is closely related to a recently introduced adaptive algorithm that…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Helmut G. Katzgraber , Simon Trebst , David A. Huse , Matthias Troyer

Parallel tempering (PT) is a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that constructs a path of distributions annealing between a tractable reference and an intractable target, and then interchanges states along the path to improve…

A basic result of large deviations theory is Sanov's theorem, which states that the sequence of empirical measures of independent and identically distributed samples satisfies the large deviation principle with rate function given by…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Markus Fischer

The study of animal behavioural states inferred through hidden Markov models and similar state switching models has seen a significant increase in popularity in recent years. The ability to account for varying levels of behavioural scale…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-06 Giada Sacchi , Ben Swallow

While gradient-based discrete samplers are effective in sampling from complex distributions, they are susceptible to getting trapped in local minima, particularly in high-dimensional, multimodal discrete distributions, owing to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-21 Luxu Liang , Yuhang Jia , Feng Zhou

The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) algorithm is a powerful and versatile method for the simulation of rare events. It is based on an interacting (via a mutation-selection procedure) system of replicas, and depends on two integer…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 Charles-Edouard Bréhier

We discuss multi-dimensional generalizations of multicanonical algorithm, simulated tempering, and replica-exchange method. We generalize the original potential energy function $E_0$ by adding any physical quantity $V$ of interest as a new…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-10-08 Ayori Mitsutake , Yuko Okamoto

The purpose of this paper is to ensure the conditions of G\"artner-Ellis Theorem for evaluations of the empirical measure. We show that up-to-date conditions for ensuring the convergence to a quasi-stationary distribution can be applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Aurélien Velleret

Sampling Boltzmann probability distributions plays a key role in machine learning and optimization, motivating the design of hardware accelerators such as Ising machines. While the Ising model can in principle encode arbitrary optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Corentin Delacour , M Mahmudul Hasan Sajeeb , Joao P. Hespanha , Kerem Y. Camsari

Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-27 David Carlson , Patrick Stinson , Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Models of biological systems often have many unknown parameters that must be determined in order for model behavior to match experimental observations. Commonly-used methods for parameter estimation that return point estimates of the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-31 Sanjana Gupta , Liam Hainsworth , Justin S. Hogg , Robin E. C. Lee , James R. Faeder

Using MCMC to sample from a target distribution, $\pi(x)$ on a $d$-dimensional state space can be a difficult and computationally expensive problem. Particularly when the target exhibits multimodality, then the traditional methods can fail…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Nicholas G. Tawn , Gareth O. Roberts

The theory of large deviations has been applied successfully in the last 30 years or so to study the properties of equilibrium systems and to put the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics on a clearer and more rigorous footing. A…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-14 Hugo Touchette , Rosemary J. Harris

Temperature of a finite-sized system fluctuates due to the thermal fluctuations. However, a systematic mathematical framework for measuring or estimating the temperature is still underdeveloped. Here, we incorporate the estimation theory in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-17 Shaoyong Zhang , Zhaoyu Fei , Xiaoguang Wang

We present an adaptive multi-GPU Exchange Monte Carlo method designed for the simulation of the 3D Random Field Model. The algorithm design is based on a two-level parallelization scheme that allows the method to scale its performance in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-08-10 C. A. Navarro , Wei Huang , Youjin Deng

The use of excessively long timesteps in dissipative particle dynamics simulations may produce simulation artifacts due to the generation of configurations which are not representative of the desired canonical ensemble. The configurational…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael P. Allen