Related papers: Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…
In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…
The forthcoming solar cycle (SC) 25 was beleived to be rather low when using the sunspot number (SN) as a measurement of the level of activity. The most popular prediction was made by the panel of NASA in 2019, including works based on…
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
We present a comprehensive analysis of Solar Cycle 25 aimed at precisely constraining the interval of its activity maximum using multiple observational parameters: sunspot number (SSN), Wolf number, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar…
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33--2014.33) of…
The solar surface magnetic field is fundamental for modeling the coronal magnetic field, studying the solar dynamo, and predicting solar cycle strength. We perform a continuous simulation of the surface magnetic field from 2010 to 2024,…
The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in Surface Flux Transport (SFT) simulations. The…
The availability of continuous helioseismic data for two consecutive solar minima has provided a unique opportunity to study the changes in the solar interior that might have led to this unusual minimum. We present preliminary analysis of…
Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
We have examined polar magnetic fields for the last three solar cycles, {$\it{viz.}$}, cycles 21, 22 and 23 using NSO Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms. In addition, we have used SoHO/MDI magnetograms to derive the polar fields during cycle…
We investigate how representing active regions with bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) affects the end-of-cycle polar field predicted by the surface flux transport model. Our study is based on a new database of BMRs derived from the SDO/HMI…