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In 2017-2020 Jordanova and co-authors investigate probabilities for p-outside values and determine them in many particular cases. They show that these probabilities are closely related to the concept for heavy tails. Tukey's boxplots are…
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…
We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…
A length-$n$ random sequence $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ in a space $S$ is finitely exchangeable if its distribution is invariant under all $n!$ permutations of coordinates. Given $N > n$, we study the extendibility problem: when is it the case that…
Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…
The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…
Positive dependencies have been compared in the literature under rather strong assumptions such as equality of conditional distributions, exchangeability, or stationarity. We establish supermodular ordering results for distributions that…
We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin…
This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…
On the framework of the Linear Farmer's Model, we approach the indeterminacy of agents' behaviour by associating with each agent an unconditional probability for her to be active at each time step. We show that Pareto tailed returns can…
Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…
Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…
Regular vine sequences permit the organisation of variables in a random vector along a sequence of trees. Regular vine models have become greatly popular in dependence modelling as a way to combine arbitrary bivariate copulas into…
We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides…
The analysis of many problems of interest associated with Markov chains, e.g. stationary distributions, moments of first passage time distributions and moments of occupation time random variables, involves the solution of a system of linear…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
This paper continues a series of studies devoted to analysis of the bivariate probability distribution P(x,y) of two consecutive price increments x (push) and y (response) at intraday timescales for a group of stocks. Besides the asymmetry…
Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…
In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…
Markov chains arising from random iteration of functions $S_{\theta}:X\to X$, $\theta \in \Theta$, where $X$ is a Polish space and $\Theta$ is arbitrary set of indices are considerd. At $x\in X$, $\theta$ is sampled from distribution…