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We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining…
Outliers contaminating data sets are a challenge to statistical estimators. Even a small fraction of outlying observations can heavily influence most classical statistical methods. In this paper we propose generalized spherical principal…
Policy Iteration (PI) is a classical family of algorithms to compute an optimal policy for any given Markov Decision Problem (MDP). The basic idea in PI is to begin with some initial policy and to repeatedly update the policy to one from an…
A multi--state life insurance model is naturally described in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time--inhomogeneous) Markov process which describes the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions,…
Consider the problem of approximating the optimal policy of a Markov decision process (MDP) by sampling state transitions. In contrast to existing reinforcement learning methods that are based on successive approximations to the nonlinear…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
We review and provide new proofs of results used to compare the efficiency of estimates generated by reversible MCMC algorithms on a general state space. We provide a full proof of the formula for the asymptotic variance for real-valued…
We consider evaluating improper priors in a formal Bayes setting according to the consequences of their use. Let $\Phi$ be a class of functions on the parameter space and consider estimating elements of $\Phi$ under quadratic loss. If the…
Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives…
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for…
In this work, we design quantum algorithms that are more efficient than classical algorithms to solve time-dependent and finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) in two distinct settings: (1) In the exact dynamics setting, where the…
Discrete-time Markov Chains (MCs) and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are two standard formalisms in system analysis. Their main associated quantitative objectives are hitting probabilities, discounted sum, and mean payoff. Although there…
We study from a theoretical viewpoint the fundamental problem of efficiently computing the stationary distribution of general classes of structured Markov processes. In strong contrast with previous work, we consider this fundamental…
The long-run average payoff per transition (mean payoff) is the main tool for specifying the performance and dependability properties of discrete systems. The problem of constructing a controller (strategy) simultaneously optimizing several…
A new mechanism for efficiently solving the Markov decision processes (MDPs) is proposed in this paper. We introduce the notion of reachability landscape where we use the Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) as a means to characterize the…
Embedded random matrix ensembles are generic models for describing statistical properties of finite isolated interacting quantum many-particle systems. For the simplest spinless systems, with say $m$ particles in $N$ single particle states…
In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm for solving planning and learning problems of Markov decision processes. The proposed algorithm follows a policy iteration-type update by using a rank-one approximation of the transition…
Grover's algorithm is a cornerstone of quantum search algorithm, offering quadratic speedup for unstructured problems. However, limited qubit counts and noise in today's noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices hinder large-scale…
Let S be a denumerable state space and let P be a transition probability matrix on S. If a denumerable set M of nonnegative matrices is such that the sum of the matrices is equal to P, then we call M a partition of P. Let K denote the set…
If A_1,...,A_N are real square matrices then the p-radius, generalised Lyapunov exponent or matrix pressure is defined to be the asymptotic exponential growth rate of the sum $\sum_{i_1,\ldots,i_n=1}^N \|A_{i_n}\cdots A_{i_1}\|^p$, where p…