English
Related papers

Related papers: Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regress…

200 papers

Building on top of a regression model, Conformal Prediction methods produce distribution free prediction sets, requiring only i.i.d. data. While R packages implementing such methods for the univariate response framework have been developed,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-30 Paolo Vergottini , Matteo Fontana , Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Aldo Solari , Simone Vantini

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response and pushed by new methodological advancements in non-parametric prediction for functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-04 Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jerzy Wieczorek

Predictive inference under a general regression setting is gaining more interest in the big-data era. In terms of going beyond point prediction to develop prediction intervals, two main threads of development are conformal prediction and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Yiren Wang , Dimitris N. Politis

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

We address the challenge of constructing valid confidence intervals and sets in problems of prediction across multiple environments. We investigate two types of coverage suitable for these problems, extending the jackknife and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-14 John C. Duchi , Suyash Gupta , Kuanhao Jiang , Pragya Sur

We propose a new method called localized conformal prediction, where we can perform conformal inference using only a local region around a new test sample to construct its confidence interval. Localized conformal inference is a natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-08 Leying Guan

The field of distribution-free predictive inference provides tools for provably valid prediction without any assumptions on the distribution of the data, which can be paired with any regression algorithm to provide accurate and reliable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-19 Michael Bian , Rina Foygel Barber

We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-27 Jing Lei , Larry Wasserman

Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Subhrasish Chakraborty , Chhavi Tyagi , Haiyan Qiao , Wenge Guo

For a regression problem with a binary label response, we examine the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the label probability conditional on the features. In a setting where we do not have any information about the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 Rina Foygel Barber

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Leying Guan

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

We propose a method for constructing distribution-free prediction intervals in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Building on the conditional guarantee framework in conformal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-27 Masahiro Kato
‹ Prev 1 2 3 10 Next ›