Related papers: Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Pro…

Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools…

Solar flares are one of the most energetic events in the solar system, their impact on Earth at ground level and its atmosphere remains under study. The repercussions of this phenomenon in our technological infrastructure includes radio…

We trace the evolution of research on extreme solar and solar-terrestrial events from the 1859 Carrington event to the rapid development of the last twenty years. Our focus is on the largest observed/inferred/theoretical cases of sunspot…

This research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)…

We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with the fluence of (>30 MeV) protons F30>10^{10} cm^{-2} is evaluated based on data of cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives centennial-millennial…

The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one…

Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…

Context. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) late-phase (ELP) flares exhibit a second peak in warm coronal emissions minutes to hours after the main peak of the flare. This phase is all but negligible, and it is still poorly understood what role it…

Many questions have to be answered before understanding the relationship between the emerging magnetic flux through the solar surface and the extreme geoeffective events. Which threshold determines the onset of the eruption? What is the…

Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…

Aims The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the…

Solar eruptions generally refer to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Both are important sources of space weather. Solar flares cause sudden change in the ionization level in the ionosphere. CMEs cause solar energetic particle (SEP)…

Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Events (ESPEs) were identified almost a decade ago, providing context for super events unleashed by our host star, the Sun. Their assumed solar origin drives the question of their ``worst-case" impact, which…

Solar flares are the largest energy-release events in the Solar System, allowing us to study fundamental physical phenomena under extreme conditions. Those include magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, radiation transport, and…

Solar hard X-ray flares can expose astronauts on lunar and deep space extravehicular activities (EVAs) to dangerous acute biological doses. We combine calculations of radiative transfer through shielding materials with subsequent transfer…

Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Ions and electrons accelerated to high energies during flares and coronal mass ejections at the Sun may escape the solar atmosphere and, guided by the interplanetary magnetic fields, propagate through space to near-Earth locations. These…

Large solar eruptive events, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can lead to solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons are accelerated up to several GeV and pose numerous space weather risks.…