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It is well understood that dynamic instability is among the primary drivers of forecast uncertainty in chaotic, physical systems. Data assimilation techniques have been designed to exploit this phenomena, reducing the effective dimension of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-27 Colin Grudzien , Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet

We prove that for linear, discrete, time-varying, deterministic system (perfect model) with noisy outputs, the Riccati transformation in the Kalman filter asymptotically bounds the rank of the forecast and the analysis error covariance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-30 Karthik S. Gurumoorthy , Colin Grudzien , Amit Apte , Alberto Carrassi , Christopher K. R. T. Jones

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

This paper studies the stability of covariance-intersection (CI)-based distributed Kalman filtering in time-varying systems. For the general time-varying case, a relationship between the error covariance and the observability Gramian is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-09 Zhongyao Hu , Bo Chen , Chao Sun , Li Yu

Contemporary data assimilation often involves millions of prediction variables. The classical Kalman filter is no longer computationally feasible in such a high dimensional context. This problem can often be resolved by exploiting the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-30 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

This article develops a comprehensive framework for stability analysis of a broad class of commonly used continuous and discrete time-filters for stochastic dynamic systems with non-linear state dynamics and linear measurements under…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Toni Karvonen , Silvère Bonnabel , Eric Moulines , Simo Särkkä

The unscented Kalman filter is a nonlinear estimation algorithm commonly used in navigation applications. The prediction of the mean and covariance matrix is crucial to the stable behavior of the filter. This prediction is done by…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Amit Levy , Itzik Klein

The Ensemble Kalman filter and Ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high dimensional nonlinear models with observed data. These methods have proved to be indispensable tools in science and engineering…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-31 Xin T Tong , Andrew J Majda , David Kelly

The unscented Kalman filter is an algorithm capable of handling nonlinear scenarios. Uncertainty in process noise covariance may decrease the filter estimation performance or even lead to its divergence. Therefore, it is important to adjust…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amit Levy , Itzik Klein

The purpose of this review is to present a comprehensive overview of the theory of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filtering for continuous-time, linear-Gaussian signal and observation models. We present a system of equations that describe the flow of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Pierre Del Moral

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

Ill-posed inverse problems are ubiquitous in applications. Under- standing of algorithms for their solution has been greatly enhanced by a deep understanding of the linear inverse problem. In the applied communities ensemble-based filtering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Marco A. Iglesias , Kui Lin , Shuai Lu , Andrew M. Stuart

Providing a metric of uncertainty alongside a state estimate is often crucial when tracking a dynamical system. Classic state estimators, such as the Kalman filter (KF), provide a time-dependent uncertainty measure from knowledge of the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-10 Itzik Klein , Guy Revach , Nir Shlezinger , Jonas E. Mehr , Ruud J. G. van Sloun , Yonina. C. Eldar

Inference and simulation in the context of high-dimensional dynamical systems remain computationally challenging problems. Some form of dimensionality reduction is required to make the problem tractable in general. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-04 Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig , Jörg Nick , Filip Tronarp

Nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter (KF), such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are indispensable for state estimation in complex dynamical systems, yet the conditions for a nonlinear KF to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-25 Shida Jiang , Jaewoong Lee , Shengyu Tao , Scott Moura

Data assimilation schemes are confronted with the presence of model errors arising from the imperfect description of atmospheric dynamics. These errors are usually modeled on the basis of simple assumptions such as bias, white noise, first…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Carrassi , S. Vannitsem , C. Nicolis

Studying the stability of the Kalman filter whose measurements are randomly lost has been an active research topic for over a decade. In this paper we extend the existing results to a far more general setting in which the measurement…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-10-19 Damián Marelli , Tianju Sui , Eduardo Rohr , Minyue Fu

We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Hans Reimann , Sebastian Reich

The Kalman filter is an established tool for the analysis of dynamic systems with normally distributed noise, and it has been successfully applied in numerous application areas. It provides sequentially calculated estimates of the system…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-10-26 S. Eichstädt , N. Makarava , C. Elster

In this paper, we investigate probabilistic stability of Kalman filtering over fading channels modeled by $\ast$-mixing random processes, where channel fading is allowed to generate non-stationary packet dropouts with temporal and/or…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Junfeng Wu , Guodong Shi , Brian D. O. Anderson , Karl Henrik Johansson
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