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We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…
The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
Predicting the evolution of a large system of units using its structure of interaction is a fundamental problem in complex system theory. And so is the problem of reconstructing the structure of interaction from temporal observations. Here,…
In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…
In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the statistics of record-breaking events in stochastic processes. Along with that, many new and interesting applications of the theory of records were discovered and explored. The record…
We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as…
We present an application of the theory of stochastic processes to model and categorize non-equilibrium physical phenomena. The concepts of uniformly continuous probability measures and modular evolution lead to a systematic hierarchical…
Dynamics of complex systems is studied by first considering a chaotic time series generated by Lorenz equations and adding noise to it. The trend (smooth behavior) is separated from fluctuations at different scales using wavelet analysis…
Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…
Concurrent pattern calculus (CPC) drives interaction between processes by comparing data structures, just as sequential pattern calculus drives computation. By generalising from pattern matching to pattern unification, interaction becomes…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
We present a novel approach to investigate the long-time stochastic dynamics of multi-dimensional classical systems, in contact with a heat-bath. When the potential energy landscape is rugged, the kinetics displays a decoupling of short and…
This book covers a wide range of problems involving the applications of stochastic processes, stochastic calculus, large deviation theory, group representation theory and quantum statistics to diverse fields in dynamical systems,…
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have seen many developments in recent years. Though spatial joint models are still rare and the traditional proportional hazards formulation of the time-to-event part of the model is…
In this work, sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models, originally developed for language translation, are used to predict the temporal evolution of complex, multi-physics computer simulations. The predictive performance of seq2seq models is…
In bacterial populations, cells are able to cooperate in order to yield complex collective functionalities. Interest in population-level cellular behaviour is increasing, due to both our expanding knowledge of the underlying biological…
This paper consider a highly general dissemination model that keeps track of the stochastic evolution of the distribution of wealth over a set of agents. There are two types of events: (i) units of wealth externally arrive, and (ii) units…
We discuss model and forecast combination in time series forecasting. A foundational Bayesian perspective based on agent opinion analysis theory defines a new framework for density forecast combination, and encompasses several existing…
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…