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We establish novel quantitative stability results for optimal transport problems with respect to perturbations in the target measure. We provide explicit bounds on the stability of optimal transport potentials and maps, which are relevant…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Octave Mischler , Dario Trevisan

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

We investigate an expected utility maximization problem under model uncertainty in a one-period financial market. We capture model uncertainty by replacing the baseline model $\mathbb{P}$ with an adverse choice from a Wasserstein ball of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Laurence Carassus , Johannes Wiesel

We study the problem of robust distribution estimation under the Wasserstein distance, a popular discrepancy measure between probability distributions rooted in optimal transport (OT) theory. Given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-25 Sloan Nietert , Rachel Cummings , Ziv Goldfeld

This paper is concerned by statistical inference problems from a data set whose elements may be modeled as random probability measures such as multiple histograms or point clouds. We propose to review recent contributions in statistics on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-27 Jérémie Bigot

We consider the model of a transportation problem with the objective of finding a minimum-cost transportation plan for shipping a given commodity from a set of supply centers to the customers. Since the exact values of supply and demand and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Elif Garajová , Miroslav Rada

Balancing safety and efficiency when planning in crowded scenarios with uncertain dynamics is challenging where it is imperative to accomplish the robot's mission without incurring any safety violations. Typically, chance constraints are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Khaled A. Mustafa , Oscar de Groot , Xinwei Wang , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Paul Dupuis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis , Petr Plechac

Optimal transport (OT) provides powerful tools for comparing probability measures in various types. The Wasserstein distance which arises naturally from the idea of OT is widely used in many machine learning applications. Unfortunately,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Shu Liu , Haodong Sun , Hongyuan Zha

Understanding the generalization of deep neural networks is one of the most important tasks in deep learning. Although much progress has been made, theoretical error bounds still often behave disparately from empirical observations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Ching-Yao Chuang , Youssef Mroueh , Kristjan Greenewald , Antonio Torralba , Stefanie Jegelka

Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Enrico Bibbona , Susanne Ditlevsen

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-14 Carole Bernard , Silvana M. Pesenti , Steven Vanduffel

This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Antoine de Mathelin , François Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

The adapted Wasserstein distance is a metric for quantifying distributional uncertainty and assessing the sensitivity of stochastic optimization problems on time series data. A computationally efficient alternative to it, is provided by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Beatrice Acciaio , Songyan Hou , Gudmund Pammer

This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-09-11 Sofie Haesaert , Robert Babuska , Alessandro Abate

Optimal transport (OT) provides effective tools for comparing and mapping probability measures. We propose to leverage the flexibility of neural networks to learn an approximate optimal transport map. More precisely, we present a new and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Florentin Coeurdoux , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

We propose a new method to estimate Wasserstein distances and optimal transport plans between two probability distributions from samples in high dimension. Unlike plug-in rules that simply replace the true distributions by their empirical…

When simulating a complex stochastic system, the behavior of output response depends on input parameters estimated from finite real-world data, and the finiteness of data brings input uncertainty into the system. The quantification of the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-20 Helin Zhu , Tianyi Liu , Enlu Zhou

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-21 Matthew Plumlee , Henry Lam

Optimal Transport (OT) distances are now routinely used as loss functions in ML tasks. Yet, computing OT distances between arbitrary (i.e. not necessarily discrete) probability distributions remains an open problem. This paper introduces a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-03 Arthur Mensch , Gabriel Peyré