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In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-28 Tathagata Banerjee , Alex Bernstein , Zachary Feinstein

We consider financial networks, where banks are connected by contracts such as debts or credit default swaps. We study the clearing problem in these systems: we want to know which banks end up in a default, and what portion of their…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-11-23 Pál András Papp , Roger Wattenhofer

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-04 Sebastian Heise , Reimer Kuehn

Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-25 Paolo Tasca , Pavlin Mavrodiev , Frank Schweitzer

We present a multilayer network model for credit risk assessment. Our model accounts for multiple connections between borrowers (such as their geographic location and their economic activity) and allows for explicitly modelling the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-07-27 María Óskarsdóttir , Cristián Bravo

We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-16 Matt V. Leduc , Sebastian Poledna , Stefan Thurner

We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE), Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit Valuation…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-06-19 Damiano Brigo

The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-18 Nils Detering , Thilo Meyer-Brandis , Konstantinos Panagiotou , Daniel Ritter

Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-19 Roberto Baviera

The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Bernd Rosenow , Rafael Weissbach , Frank Altrock

The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-17 Thilo A. Schmitt , Desislava Chetalova , Rudi Schäfer , Thomas Guhr

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-22 Alan White

It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-17 Yoshiharu Maeno , Kenji Nishiguchi , Satoshi Morinaga , Hirokazu Matsushima

The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-08-05 Matteo Smerlak , Brady Stoll , Agam Gupta , James S. Magdanz

In this paper we offer a novel type of network model which can capture the precise structure of a financial market based, for example, on empirical findings. With the attached stochastic framework it is further possible to study how an…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-09 Alexander von Felbert

Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-23 Giulio Cimini , Matteo Serri

Companies do not operate in a vacuum. As companies move towards an increasingly specialized production function and their reach is becoming truly global, their aptitude in managing and shaping their inter-organizational network is a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-24 Tore Opsahl , William Newton

In this paper, we propose a method that provides a useful technique to compare relationship between risks involved that takes customer become defaulter and debt collection process that might make this defaulter recovered. Through estimation…

Applications · Statistics 2014-08-20 Mauro R. Oliveira , Francisco Louzada

Cyber risks are the most common risks encountered by a modern network system. However, it is significantly difficult to assess the joint cyber risk owing to the network topology, risk propagation, and heterogeneities of components. In this…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Gaofeng Da , Maochao Xu , Jingshi Zhang , Peng Zhao

In this paper, we performs a credit risk analysis, on the data of past loan applicants of a company named Lending Club. The calculation required the use of exploratory data analysis and machine learning classification algorithms, namely,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-12 Aadi Gupta , Priya Gulati , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty