Related papers: On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: rob…

We study the problem of robustly estimating the posterior distribution for the setting where observed data can be contaminated with potentially adversarial outliers. We propose Rob-ULA, a robust variant of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm…

Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…

We develop a statistical framework for risk estimation, inspired by the axiomatic theory of risk measures. Coherent risk estimators -- functionals of P\&L samples inheriting the economic properties of risk measures -- are defined and…

Parametric statistical methods play a central role in analyzing risk through its underlying frequency and severity components. Given the wide availability of numerical algorithms and high-speed computers, researchers and practitioners often…

We present a framework to interpret signal temporal logic (STL) formulas over discrete-time stochastic processes in terms of the induced risk. Each realization of a stochastic process either satisfies or violates an STL formula. In fact, we…

Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…

Among the different possible strategies for evaluating the reliability of individual predictions of classifiers, robustness quantification stands out as a method that evaluates how much uncertainty a classifier could cope with before…

Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional…

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) have received significant research interest, offering an alternative to standard Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that often assume fixed transition probabilities. RMDPs address this by optimizing…

The problem of finding the optimal portfolio for investors is called the portfolio optimization problem. Such problem mainly concerns the expectation and variability of return (i.e., mean and variance). Although the variance would be the…

Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…

The presence of outlying observations may adversely affect statistical testing procedures that result in unstable test statistics and unreliable inferences depending on the distortion in parameter estimates. In spite of the fact that the…

The robustness of algorithms against covariate shifts is a fundamental problem with critical implications for the deployment of machine learning algorithms in the real world. Current evaluation methods predominantly measure robustness…

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying…

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

Risk assessment of a robot in controlled environments, such as laboratories and proving grounds, is a common means to assess, certify, validate, verify, and characterize the robots' safety performance before, during, and even after their…

We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…