Related papers: Predictability of Popularity: Gaps between Predict…
Predicting popularity, or the total volume of information outbreaks, is an important subproblem for understanding collective behavior in networks. Each of the two main types of recent approaches to the problem, feature-driven and generative…
How predictable is success in complex social systems? In spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that exploit online social and information network data, this question remains unanswered, in part because it has not been adequately…
Billions of USD are invested in new artists and songs by the music industry every year. This research provides a new strategy for assessing the hit potential of songs, which can help record companies support their investment decisions. A…
Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the…
Predicting the popularity of news article is a challenging task. Existing literature mostly focused on article contents and polarity to predict popularity. However, existing research has not considered the users' preference towards a…
Algorithms that favor popular items are used to help us select among many choices, from engaging articles on a social media news feed to songs and books that others have purchased, and from top-raked search engine results to highly-cited…
The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems…
What is the future of fashion? Tackling this question from a data-driven vision perspective, we propose to forecast visual style trends before they occur. We introduce the first approach to predict the future popularity of styles discovered…
Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This paper examines the perfor- mance of a wide variety of social network based measurements…
Modeling and predicting the popularity of online content is a significant problem for the practice of information dissemination, advertising, and consumption. Recent work analyzing massive datasets advances our understanding of popularity,…
Topic popularity prediction in social networks has drawn much attention recently. Various elegant models have been proposed for this issue. However, different datasets and evaluation metrics they use lead to low comparability. So far there…
Predicting the popularity of social media content in real time requires approaches that efficiently operate at global scale. Popularity prediction is important for many applications, including detection of harmful viral content to enable…
Items popularity is a strong signal in recommendation algorithms. It strongly affects collaborative filtering approaches and it has been proven to be a very good baseline in terms of results accuracy. Even though we miss an actual…
We here present a simple and effective model to predict the popularity of web content. Our solution, which is the winner of two of the three tasks of the ECML/PKDD 2014 Predictive Analytics Challenge, aims at predicting user engagement…
Social scientists have long sought to understand why certain people, items, or options become more popular than others. One seemingly intuitive theory is that inherent value drives popularity. An alternative theory claims that popularity is…
Goods, styles, ideologies are adopted by society through various mechanisms. In particular, adoption driven by innovation is extensively studied by marketing economics. Mathematical models are currently used to forecast the sales of…
Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex…
This paper proposes a new prediction process to explain and predict popularity evolution of YouTube videos. We exploit our recent study on the classification of YouTube videos in order to predict the evolution of videos' view-count. This…
Our global population contributes visual content on platforms like Instagram, attempting to express themselves and engage their audiences, at an unprecedented and increasing rate. In this paper, we revisit the popularity prediction on…
On social media sharing platforms, some posts are inherently destined for popularity. Therefore, understanding the reasons behind this phenomenon and predicting popularity before post publication holds significant practical value. The…