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Estimations of physical parameters using data usually involve non-uniform experimental efficiencies. In this article, a method of maximum likelihood fit is introduced using the efficiency as a weight, while the probability distribution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-31 Chenxu Yu , Yanxi Zhang

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-30 Youngsoo Baek , Samuel I. Berchuck , Sayan Mukherjee

We present a statistically and computationally efficient spectral-domain maximum-likelihood procedure to solve for the structure of Gaussian spatial random fields within the Matern covariance hyperclass. For univariate, stationary, and…

We consider the asymptotic behavior of the expectation of the maximum for a special assignment process with constant or i.i.d. coefficients. We show how it depends on the coefficients' distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Mikhail Lifshits , Arman Tadevosian

Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-11 F Blasques , P Gorgi , S Koopman , O Wintenberger

We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Jérémie Bigot , Rolando Biscay , Jean-Michel Loubes , Lilian Muniz Alvarez

Given a set of independent Poisson random variables with common mean, we study the distribution of their maximum and obtain an accurate asymptotic formula to locate the most probable value of the maximum. We verify our analytic results with…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-26 K. M. Briggs , L. Song , T. Prellberg

We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Stephen E. Fienberg , Alessandro Rinaldo

In this note, we give a short information-theoretic proof of the consistency of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in linear auto-regressive models. Our proof yields nearly optimal non-asymptotic rates for parameter recovery and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-11 Ingvar Ziemann

We consider statistical models driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian self-similar processes with long memory and we construct maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for the drift parameter. Our approach is based on the approximation by random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-19 Karine Bertin , Soledad Torres , Ciprian Tudor

This work is concerned with the estimation of multidimensional regression and the asymptotic behaviour of the test involved in selecting models. The main problem with such models is that we need to know the covariance matrix of the noise to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-02-20 Joseph Rynkiewicz

We study the problem of estimating the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process based on observations of the points and covariates over a large window. We consider the nonparametric Bayesian approach, and show that a wide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Patric Dolmeta , Matteo Giordano

This paper provides a precise error analysis for the maximum likelihood estimate $\hat{a}_{\text{ML}}(u_1^n)$ of the parameter $a$ given samples $u_1^n = (u_1, \ldots, u_n)'$ drawn from a nonstationary Gauss-Markov process $U_i = a U_{i-1}…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Peida Tian , Victoria Kostina

This paper is devoted to the estimation of a vector parametrizing an energy function associated to some "Nearest-Neighbours" Gibbs point process, via the pseudo-likelihood method. We present some convergence results concerning this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Jean-Michel Billiot , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Rémy Drouilhet

This paper focuses on the problem of determining as large a region as possible where a function exceeds a given threshold with high probability. We assume that we only have access to a noise-corrupted version of the function and that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-27 Andrea Zanette , Junzi Zhang , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Maximizing the likelihood has been widely used for estimating the unknown covariance parameters of spatial Gaussian processes. However, evaluating and optimizing the likelihood function can be computationally intractable, particularly for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-16 Hossein Keshavarz , XuanLong Nguyen , Clayton Scott

Using stochastic gradient search and the optimal filter derivative, it is possible to perform recursive (i.e., online) maximum likelihood estimation in a non-linear state-space model. As the optimal filter and its derivative are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Vladislav Z. B. Tadic , Arnaud Doucet

Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-31 Alexis Bienvenüe , Christian Y. Robert

Many application domains such as ecology or genomics have to deal with multivariate non Gaussian observations. A typical example is the joint observation of the respective abundances of a set of species in a series of sites, aiming to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-01 Julien Chiquet , Mahendra Mariadassou , Stéphane Robin

We develop a maximum penalized quasi-likelihood estimator for estimating in a nonparametric way the diffusion function of a diffusion process, as an alternative to more traditional kernel-based estimators. After developing a numerical…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-01-12 Jeff Hamrick , Yifei Huang , Constantinos Kardaras , Murad Taqqu