Related papers: Skew-t inference with improved covariance matrix a…
Accurate estimation of the dynamic states of a synchronous machine (e.g., rotor s angle and speed) is essential in monitoring and controlling transient stability of a power system. It is well known that the covariance matrixes of process…
Variational methods are attractive for computing Bayesian inference for highly parametrized models and large datasets where exact inference is impractical. They approximate a target distribution - either the posterior or an augmented…
Statistical inference for sparse covariance matrices is crucial to reveal dependence structure of large multivariate data sets, but lacks scalable and theoretically supported Bayesian methods. In this paper, we propose beta-mixture…
Inferring the posterior distribution in SLAM is critical for evaluating the uncertainty in localization and mapping, as well as supporting subsequent planning tasks aiming to reduce uncertainty for safe navigation. However, real-time full…
Model-based filtering is often carried out while subject to an imperfect model, as learning partially-observable stochastic systems remains a challenge. Recent work on Bayesian inference found that tempering the likelihood or full posterior…
Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering…
Much research has been carried out on shrinkage methods for real-valued covariance matrices. In spectral analysis of $p$-vector-valued time series there is often a need for good shrinkage methods too, most notably when the complex-valued…
Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…
The non-smooth finite-sum minimization is a fundamental problem in machine learning. This paper develops a distributed stochastic proximal-gradient algorithm with random reshuffling to solve the finite-sum minimization over time-varying…
Our article considers a Gaussian variational approximation of the posterior density in a high-dimensional state space model. The variational parameters to be optimized are the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the approximation. The…
We present a new theoretical perspective of data noising in recurrent neural network language models (Xie et al., 2017). We show that each variant of data noising is an instance of Bayesian recurrent neural networks with a particular…
Online joint estimation of unknown parameters and states in a dynamical system with uncertainty quantification is crucial in many applications. For example, digital twins dynamically update their knowledge of model parameters and states to…
One of the major challenges in multivariate analysis is the estimation of population covariance matrix from sample covariance matrix (SCM). Most recent covariance matrix estimators use either shrinkage transformations or asymptotic results…
Data assimilation leads naturally to a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior probability distribution of the system state, given the observations, plays a central conceptual role. The aim of this paper is to use this Bayesian…
Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…
This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…
This paper studies the sparse normal mean models under the empirical Bayes framework. We focus on the mixture priors with an atom at zero and a density component centered at a data driven location determined by maximizing the marginal…
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…
We consider the problem of sampling from a posterior distribution arising in Bayesian inverse problems in science, engineering, and imaging. Our method belongs to the family of independence Metropolis-Hastings (IMH) sampling algorithms,…
We consider approximate maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models. We discuss both direct optimization of the likelihood and expectation--maximization (EM). For EM, we also give closed-form expressions for the…