Related papers: Modeling, dynamics and optimal control of Ebola vi…
An analytical expression for the optimal control of an Ebola problem is obtained. The analytical solution is found as a first-order approximation to the Pontryagin Maximum Principle via the Euler-Lagrange equation. An implementation of the…
This paper presents a simple continuous-time linear vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
In this paper, we consider an adaptive optimal control problem for an SIR/V epidemic model with human behavioral effects.We develop a model where effective management of infectious diseases are monitored by the means of non pharmaceutical…
We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting two different approaches: the STEIR model, which is a modified SEIR model accounting for the effect of travel, and a repeated iterations model. We fit…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
We consider a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model in which a large group of individuals decide whether to adopt partially effective protection without being aware of their individual infection status. Each individual…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
In this paper we explore a time-depended SEIR model, in which the dynamics of the infection in four groups from a selected target group (population), divided according to the infection, are modeled by a system of nonlinear ordinary…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…