Related papers: A framework for the direct evaluation of large dev…
Circular data arise in many areas of application. Recently, there has been interest in looking at circular data collected separately over time and over space. Here, we extend some of this work to the spatio-temporal setting, introducing…
This paper focuses on systems of nonlinear second-order stochastic differential equations with multi-scales. The motivation for our study stems from mathematical physics and statistical mechanics, for examples, Langevin dynamics and…
Nonlinear response occurs naturally when a strong perturbation takes a system far from equilibrium. Despite of its omnipresence in nanoscale systems, it is difficult to predict in a general and efficient way. Here we introduce a way to…
We present a new method for simulating Markovian jump processes with time-dependent transitions rates, which avoids the transformation of random numbers by inverting time integrals over the rates. It relies on constructing a sequence of…
Embedding non-Markovian open quantum dynamics into an enlarged Markovian space offers a powerful route to nonperturbative simulations, where the dynamics of the extended space can be governed by multiple distinct Markovian equations. We…
Markov decision processes are typically used for sequential decision making under uncertainty. For many aspects however, ranging from constrained or safe specifications to various kinds of temporal (non-Markovian) dependencies in task and…
Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…
Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…
In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…
When analysing statistical systems or stochastic processes, it is often interesting to ask how they behave given that some observable takes some prescribed value. This conditioning problem is well understood within the linear operator…
Generic non-Markovian quantum processes have infinitely long memory, implying an exact description that grows exponentially in complexity with observation time. Here, we present a finite memory ansatz that approximates (or recovers) the…
This paper proposes approaches for the analysis of multiple changepoint models when dependency in the data is modelled through a hierarchical Gaussian Markov random field. Integrated nested Laplace approximations are used to approximate…
Dynamics of non-Markovian systems is a classic problem yet it attracts an everlasting activity in physics and beyond. A powerful tool for modeling such setups is the Generalized Langevin Equation, however, its analysis typically poses a…
Models for complex systems are often built with more parameters than can be uniquely identified by available data. Because of the variety of causes, identifying a lack of parameter identifiability typically requires mathematical…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
It is quite clear from a wide range of experiments that gating phenomena of ion channels is inherently stochastic. It has been discussed using BD simulations in a recent paper that memory effects in ion transport is negligible, unless the…
We present a numerical method to produce stochastic dynamics according to the generalized Langevin equation with a non-stationary memory kernel. This type of dynamics occurs when a microscopic system with an explicitly time-dependent…
Non-Markovian processes have recently become a central topic in the study of open quantum systems. We realize experimentally non-Markovian decoherence processes of single photons by combining time delay and evolution in a…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
We present a systematic analysis of stochastic processes conditioned on an empirical measure $Q_T$ defined in a time interval $[0,T]$ for large $T$. We build our analysis starting from a discrete time Markov chain. Results for a continuous…