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Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

We study numerical computation of conformal invariants of domains in the complex plane. In particular, we provide an algorithm for computing the conformal capacity of a condenser. The algorithm applies for wide kind of geometries: domains…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2020-08-19 Mohamed M S Nasser , Matti Vuorinen

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ramya Ramalingam , Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction has become increasingly popular for quantifying the uncertainty associated with machine learning models. Recent work in graph uncertainty quantification has built upon this approach for conformal graph prediction. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Pranav Maneriker , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Yuntian He , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting thermodynamic properties of binary mixtures, which we call the similarity-based method (SBM). The method is based on quantifying the pairwise similarity of components, which we…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-02-20 Nicolas Hayer , Thomas Specht , Justus Arweiler , Dominik Gond , Hans Hasse , Fabian Jirasek

Breast cancer is the most common cancers and early detection from mammography screening is crucial in improving patient outcomes. Assessing mammographic breast density is clinically important as the denser breasts have higher risk and are…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-27 Charles Lu , Ken Chang , Praveer Singh , Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Sara Sangalli , Gary Sarwin , Ertunc Erdil , Alessandro Carretta , Victor Staartjes , Carlo Serra , Ender Konukoglu

Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, enhancing the prediction reliability under non-exchangeability. This study demonstrates that these desirable properties of ACI do not require the use of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-02 Johan Hallberg Szabadváry , Tuwe Löfström

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Paolo Toccaceli , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Understanding the dose-response relation between a continuous treatment and the outcome for an individual can greatly drive decision-making, particularly in areas like personalized drug dosing and personalized healthcare interventions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Jarne Verhaeghe , Jef Jonkers , Sofie Van Hoecke

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-25 Vladimir Vovk

This work proposes a conformable fractional predictor-corrector algorithm for solving conformable fractional differential equations. Fractional calculus is finding applications in various scientific fields, but existing numerical methods…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Mohamed Echchehira , Youness Assebbane , Mustapha Atraoui , Mohamed Bouaouid

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

In chemometrics, data from infrared or near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy are often used to identify a compound or to analyze the composition of amaterial. This involves the calibration of models that predict the concentration ofmaterial…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2015-03-20 A. Ukil , J. Bernasconi

Reliable uncertainty estimation is one of the major challenges for medical classification tasks. While many approaches have been proposed, recently the statistical framework of conformal predictions has gained a lot of attention, due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Hendrik Mehrtens , Tabea Bucher , Titus J. Brinker