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We develop a Monte Carlo-free approach to inference post output from randomized algorithms with a convex loss and a convex penalty. The pivotal statistic based on a truncated law, called the selective pivot, usually lacks closed form…
This paper describes a simple procedure to estimate the parameters of the univariate truncated normal and lognormal distributions by maximum likelihood. It starts from a reparameterization of the lognormal that was previously introduced by…
When observations are truncated, we are limited to an incomplete picture of our dataset. Recent methods propose to use score matching for truncated density estimation, where the access to the intractable normalising constant is not…
Within Bayesian state estimation, considerable effort has been devoted to incorporating constraints into state estimation for process optimization, state monitoring, fault detection and control. Nonetheless, in the domain of state-space…
Many randomized approximation algorithms operate by giving a procedure for simulating a random variable $X$ which has mean $\mu$ equal to the target answer, and a relative standard deviation bounded above by a known constant $c$. Examples…
One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…
This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…
The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile iterative method to estimate the probability of rare events, based on an interacting particle systems. In an other article, in a so-called idealized setting, the…
This paper introduces a new version of the smoothly trimmed mean with a more general version of weights, which can be used as an alternative to the classical trimmed mean. We derive its asymptotic variance and to further investigate its…
We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…
We revisit the problem of estimating the mean of a real-valued distribution, presenting a novel estimator with sub-Gaussian convergence: intuitively, "our estimator, on any distribution, is as accurate as the sample mean is for the Gaussian…
Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expression of the sum distribution is usually intractable and presents an open problem. A crude Monte…
A fundamental problem in statistics is estimating the shape matrix of an Elliptical distribution. This generalizes the familiar problem of Gaussian covariance estimation, for which the sample covariance achieves optimal estimation error.…
Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) is widely used in empirical work in economics and other disciplines. As Gaussian approximations perform poorly in the presence of "small denominators," trimming is routinely employed as a regularization…
This paper establishes the optimal sub-Gaussian variance proxy for truncated Gaussian and truncated exponential random variables. The proofs rely on first characterizing the optimal variance proxy as the unique solution to a set of two…
In probability theory and statistics, the IID model represents a single population, and a large, potentially infinite sample from this population. Main theorems, in particular the central limit theorem and laws of large number (LLN) assure…
Compositional data, which is data consisting of fractions or probabilities, is common in many fields including ecology, economics, physical science and political science. If these data would otherwise be normally distributed, their spread…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
We study the law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters (as a convex optimization problem) in the generalized linear models with independent or weakly dependent ($\rho$-mixing, $m$-dependent)…
The effectiveness of non-parametric, kernel-based methods for function estimation comes at the price of high computational complexity, which hinders their applicability in adaptive, model-based control. Motivated by approximation techniques…