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Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

We consider estimation of measure of uncertainty in small area estimation (SAE) when a procedure of model selection is involved prior to the estimation. A unified Monte-Carlo jackknife method, called McJack, is proposed for estimating the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-18 Jiming Jiang , P. Lahiri , Thuan Nguyen

In this paper we propose an ad-hoc construction of the Likelihood Function, in order to develop a data analysis procedure, to be applied in atomic and nuclear spectral analysis. The classical Likelihood Function was modified taking into…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-12 Leonardo Bennun

Model averaging considers the model uncertainty and is an alternative to model selection. In this paper, we propose a frequentist model averaging estimator for composite quantile regressions. In recent years, research on these topics has…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Miaomiao Wang , Guohua Zou

In this paper, we study the asymptotic bias of the factor-augmented regression estimator and its reduction, which is augmented by the $r$ factors extracted from a large number of $N$ variables with $T$ observations. In particular, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Peiyun Jiang , Yoshimasa Uematsu , Takashi Yamagata

The saddlepoint approximation to the likelihood, and its corresponding maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), offer an alternative estimation method when the true likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive. However, maximizing this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Godrick Oketch , Rachel M. Fewster , Jesse Goodman

Modern statistical analysis often encounters datasets with large sizes. For these datasets, conventional estimation methods can hardly be used immediately because practitioners often suffer from limited computational resources. In most…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-14 Shuyuan Wu , Xuening Zhu , Hansheng Wang

We present a Bayesian jackknife test for assessing the probability that a data set contains biased subsets, and, if so, which of the subsets are likely to be biased. The test can be used to assess the presence and likely source of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-07 Michael J. Wilensky , Fraser Kennedy , Philip Bull , Joshua S. Dillon , The HERA Collaboration

The likelihood function plays a pivotal role in statistical inference; it is adaptable to a wide range of models and the resultant estimators are known to have good properties. However, these results hinge on correct specification of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Adam Jaeger , Nicole Lazar

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are applicable to statistical models specified by generative processes with analytically intractable likelihoods. These methods try to approximate the posterior density of a model parameter by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Kim Cuc Pham

In linear regression, the least squares (LS) estimator has certain optimality properties if the errors are normally distributed. This assumption is often violated in practice, partly caused by data outliers. Robust estimators can cope with…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-01 Sukru Acitas , Peter Filzmoser , Birdal Senoglu

The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable…

Active learning (AL) is a promising ML paradigm that has the potential to parse through large unlabeled data and help reduce annotation cost in domains where labeling data can be prohibitive. Recently proposed neural network based AL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Prateek Munjal , Nasir Hayat , Munawar Hayat , Jamshid Sourati , Shadab Khan

Sequential trial emulation (STE) is an approach to estimating causal treatment effects by emulating a sequence of target trials from observational data. In STE, inverse probability weighting is commonly utilised to address time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-10 Juliette M. Limozin , Shaun R. Seaman , Li Su

Expected Shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or Conditional Value-at-Risk, has been recognized as an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimization, and is also finding applications beyond these areas. In finance, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-13 Xuming He , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

In modern biomedical and econometric studies, longitudinal processes are often characterized by complex time-varying associations and abrupt regime shifts that are shared across correlated outcomes. Standard functional data analysis (FDA)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Baolin Chen , Mengfei Ran

Maximum pseudolikelihood (MPL) estimators are useful alternatives to maximum likelihood (ML) estimators when likelihood functions are more difficult to manipulate than their marginal and conditional components. Furthermore, MPL estimators…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-30 Hien D. Nguyen

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering, and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process. However, in some cases, it may not be possible to write down the likelihood for these…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , David J. Nott , Kim Cuc Pham

We propose to scale RL to unverifiable data with a novel algorithm JEPO (Jensen's Evidence lower bound Policy Optimization). While most prior efforts on scaling RL for LLMs focus on verifiable data where ground truth answers are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Yunhao Tang , Sid Wang , Lovish Madaan , Rémi Munos