Related papers: Birth/birth-death processes and their computable t…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are…
In this paper we review some results on time-homogeneous birth-death processes. Specifically, for truncated birth-death processes with two absorbing or two reflecting endpoints, we recall the necessary and sufficient conditions on the…
We consider probabilistic programming for birth-death models of evolution and introduce a new widely-applicable inference method that combines an extension of the alive particle filter (APF) with automatic Rao-Blackwellization via delayed…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
The paper studies the counting process arising as a subset of births and deaths in a birth--death process on a finite state space. Whenever a birth or death occurs, the process is incremented or not depending on the outcome of an…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
We investigate parameter estimation in subcritical continuous-time birth-and-death processes with multiple births. We show that the classical maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters, based on the continuous observation of a…
For a birth-death process subject to catastrophes, defined on the state-space $S=\{r,r+1,r+2,...\}$, with $r$ a positive integer or zero, the first-visit time to a state $k\in S$ is considered and the Laplace transform of its probability…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…
We introduce a class of branching processes in which the reproduction or lifetime distribution at a given time depends on the total cumulative number of individuals who have been born in the population until that time. We focus on a…
We consider birth-and-death processes of objects (animals) defined in ${\bf Z}^d$ having unit death rates and random birth rates. For animals with uniformly bounded diameter we establish conditions on the rate distribution under which the…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model is extensively used for the study of the spread of infectious diseases. Even that the exact solution of the model can be obtained in an exact parametric form, in order to perform the…
We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…
Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…
We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…
Birth-death processes take place ubiquitously throughout the universe. In general, birth and death rates depend on the system size (corresponding to the number of products or customers undergoing the birth-death process) and thus vary every…
Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…
In Section 1, we revisit the partial differential equation (PDE) for the probability generating function (PGF) of the time-nonhomogeneous BDI (birth-and-death-with-immigration) process and derive a closed form solution. To the best of our…