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Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

In accordance with the principle of "data minimization", many internet companies are opting to record less data. However, this is often at odds with A/B testing efficacy. For experiments with units with multiple observations, one popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Leon Yao , Paul Yiming Li , Jiannan Lu

Identifying optimal medical treatments to improve survival has long been a critical goal of pharmacoepidemiology. Traditionally, we use an average treatment effect measure to compare outcomes between treatment plans. However, new methods…

In medical research, the traditional way to collect data, i.e. browsing patient files, has been proven to induce bias, errors, human labor and costs. We propose a semi-automated system able to extract every type of data, including notes.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-01 Sophie Quennelle , Maxime Douillet , Lisa Friedlander , Olivia Boyer , Anita Burgun , Antoine Neuraz , Nicolas Garcelon

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

Motivated by modern applications such as computerized adaptive testing, sequential rank aggregation, and heterogeneous data source selection, we study the problem of active sequential estimation, which involves adaptively selecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Xiaoou Li , Hongru Zhao

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

Empirical research shows that individuals' responses to treatments vary along latent characteristics, such as innate ability or motivation. Therefore, a policymaker seeking to maximize welfare may consider designing policies based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-06 Giacomo Opocher

Predicting which action (treatment) will lead to a better outcome is a central task in decision support systems. To build a prediction model in real situations, learning from biased observational data is a critical issue due to the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Akira Tanimoto , Tomoya Sakai , Takashi Takenouchi , Hisashi Kashima

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Existing statistical methods for the analysis of micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are designed to estimate causal excursion effects using data from a single MRT. In practice, however, researchers can often find previous MRTs that employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Easton Huch , Inbal Nahum-Shani , Lindsey Potter , Cho Lam , David W. Wetter , Walter Dempsey

We propose an approach to better inform treatment decisions at an individual level by adapting recent advances in average treatment effect estimation to conditional average treatment effect estimation. Our work is based on doubly robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Aaron Fisher , Virginia Fisher

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

Suppose we are interested in the effect of a treatment in a clinical trial. The efficiency of inference may be limited due to small sample size. However, external control data are often available from historical studies. Motivated by an…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Xinyu Li , Wang Miao , Fang Lu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomized trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-30 Shu Yang , Chenyin Gao , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

This paper investigates the use of regularization priors in the context of treatment effect estimation using observational data where the number of control variables is large relative to the number of observations. First, the phenomenon of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-30 P. Richard Hahn , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jingyu He , David Puelz

Patients often discontinue treatment in a clinical trial because their health condition is not improving. Consequently, the patients still in the study at the end of the trial have better health outcomes on average than the initial patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-06 Alex Ocampo , Heinz Schmidli , Peter Quarg , Francesca Callegari , Marcello Pagano

We study a data analyst's problem of acquiring data from self-interested individuals to obtain an accurate estimation of some statistic of a population, subject to an expected budget constraint. Each data holder incurs a cost, which is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Yiling Chen , Shuran Zheng

In this paper, we outline a principled approach to estimate an individualized treatment rule that is appropriate for data from observational studies where, in addition to treatment assignment not being independent of individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-05 Jeremy Roth , Noah Simon

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath
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