Related papers: Extension of PRISM by Synthesis of Optimal Timeout…

We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…

We consider the fixed-delay synthesis problem for continuous-time Markov chains extended with fixed-delay transitions (fdCTMC). The goal is to synthesize concrete values of the fixed-delays (timeouts) that minimize the expected total cost…

We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…

Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical…

Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…

Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism…

We introduce stochastic decision Petri nets (SDPNs), which are a form of stochastic Petri nets equipped with rewards and a control mechanism via the deactivation of controllable transitions. Such nets can be translated into Markov decision…

The stochastic nature of time delays and sampling intervals in Networked Control Systems poses significant challenges for controller synthesis and analysis, often leading to conservative designs and degraded performance. This work presents…

Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) with rewards are a widespread and well-studied model for systems that make both probabilistic and nondeterministic choices. A fundamental result about MDPs is that their minimal and maximal expected rewards…

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Several real-world scenarios, such as remote control and sensing, are comprised of action and observation delays. The presence of delays degrades the performance of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, often to such an extent that…

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

We study and develop the stochastic Markov reward model (sMRM), which extends the Markov chain where transition time/reward as modelled as random variables. Techniques are presented to enable computing first-passage time distributions (or…

Continuous-time Markov chains with alarms (ACTMCs) allow for alarm events that can be non-exponentially distributed. Within parametric ACTMCs, the parameters of alarm-event distributions are not given explicitly and can be subject of…

We establish a collection of closed-loop guarantees and propose a scalable optimization algorithm for distributionally robust model predictive control (DRMPC) applied to linear systems, convex constraints, and quadratic costs. Via standard…

We consider the problem of approximating the probability mass of the set of timed paths under a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) that are accepted by a deterministic timed automaton (DTA). As opposed to several existing works on this…

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…

We study the verification of a finite continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) C against a linear real-time specification given as a deterministic timed automaton (DTA) A with finite or Muller acceptance conditions. The central question that we…

Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…