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We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-30 Harald Bernhard , Bikramjit Das

The problem of sparse linear regression is relevant in the context of linear system identification from large datasets. When data are collected from real-world experiments, measurements are always affected by perturbations or low-precision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-01 S. M. Fosson , V. Cerone , D. Regruto

We propose robust sparse reduced rank regression for analyzing large and complex high-dimensional data with heavy-tailed random noise. The proposed method is based on a convex relaxation of a rank- and sparsity-constrained non-convex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Kean Ming Tan , Qiang Sun , Daniela Witten

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-24 Fabian L. Wauthier , Michael I. Jordan

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Jose Carlos Araujo Acuna , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

Real space condensation is known to occur in stochastic models of mass transport in the regime in which the globally conserved mass density is greater than a critical value. It has been shown within models with factorised stationary states…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-11-04 Juraj Szavits-Nossan , Martin R. Evans , Satya N. Majumdar

In this paper, we estimate the sparse dependence structure in the tail region of a multivariate random vector, potentially of high dimension. The tail dependence is modeled via a graphical model for extremes embedded in the H\"usler-Reiss…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Phyllis Wan , Chen Zhou

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou

We present a new computational approach to approximating a large, noisy data table by a low-rank matrix with sparse singular vectors. The approximation is obtained from thresholded subspace iterations that produce the singular vectors…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-12-13 Dan Yang , Zongming Ma , Andreas Buja

A novel statistical method is proposed and investigated for estimating a heavy tailed density under mild smoothness assumptions. Statistical analyses of heavy-tailed distributions are susceptible to the problem of sparse information in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Surya T Tokdar , Sheng Jiang , Erika L Cunningham

We show that a simple mechanistic model of spatial dispersal for settling organisms, subject to parameter variability, can generate heavy-tailed radial probability density functions. The movement of organisms in the model consists of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-23 Luis F. Gordillo , Priscilla E. Greenwood

Recently, a number of mostly $\ell_1$-norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective,…

We extend classical results by A. V. Nagaev [Izv. Akad. Nauk UzSSR Ser. Fiz.--Mat. Nauk 6 (1969) 17--22, Theory Probab. Appl. 14 (1969) 51--64, 193--208] on large deviations for sums of i.i.d. regularly varying random variables to partial…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Henrik Hult , Filip Lindskog , Thomas Mikosch , Gennady Samorodnitsky

\noindent We study the asymptotic behavior of a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned by a sum of independent and identically distributed integer-valued random variables. We prove a Berry-Esseen bound…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-01 Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

Many theoretical results for the lasso require the samples to be iid. Recent work has provided guarantees for the lasso assuming that the time series is generated by a sparse Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model with Gaussian innovations.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Kam Chung Wong , Zifan Li , Ambuj Tewari

Sparse learning is ubiquitous in many machine learning tasks. It aims to regularize the goodness-of-fit objective by adding a penalty term to encode structural constraints on the model parameters. In this paper, we develop a flexible sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Yingjie Wang , Mokhtar Z. Alaya , Salim Bouzebda , Xinsheng Liu

Our goal is to develop a Bayesian model averaging technique in linear regression models that accommodates heavier tailed error densities than the normal distribution. Motivated by the use of the Huber loss function in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We investigate the training of sparse layers that use different parameters for different inputs based on hashing in large Transformer models. Specifically, we modify the feedforward layer to hash to different sets of weights depending on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Stephen Roller , Sainbayar Sukhbaatar , Arthur Szlam , Jason Weston

Heavy-tailed distributions have been studied in statistics, random matrix theory, physics, and econometrics as models of correlated systems, among other domains. Further, heavy-tail distributed eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-25 John Y. Shin