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Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-03 Mateus Maia , Daniela Castro-Camilo , Jethro Browell

The choice of the tuning parameter in the Lasso is central to its statistical performance in high-dimensional linear regression. In this work, we study tuning regimes under which the Lasso exhibits suboptimal prediction performance, in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Guo Liu

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-04 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

Electricity is difficult to store, except at prohibitive cost, and therefore the balance between generation and load must be maintained at all times. Electricity is traditionally managed by anticipating demand and intermittent production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Julie Keisler , Margaux Bregere

In this paper a model is developed to solve the on/off scheduling of (non-linear) dynamic electric loads based on predictions of the power delivery of a (standalone) solar power source. Knowledge of variations in the solar power output is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Abdulelah H. Habib , Jan Kleissl , Raymond A. de Callafon

Probabilistic weather forecasts from ensemble systems require statistical postprocessing to yield calibrated and sharp predictive distributions. This paper presents an area-covering postprocessing method for ensemble precipitation…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-13 Lea Friedli , David Ginsbourger , Jonas Bhend

A machine learning algorithm is developed to forecast the CO2 emission intensities in electrical power grids in the Danish bidding zone DK2, distinguishing between average and marginal emissions. The analysis was done on data set comprised…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-13 Kenneth Leerbeck , Peder Bacher , Rune Junker , Goran Goranović , Olivier Corradi , Razgar Ebrahimy , Anna Tveit , Henrik Madsen

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), a popular method for high-dimensional regression, is now used widely for estimating high-dimensional time series models such as the vector autoregression (VAR). Selecting its tuning…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Tathagata Sadhukhan , Ines Wilms , Stephan Smeekes , Sumanta Basu

We model and study the problem of localizing a set of sparse forcing inputs for linear dynamical systems from noisy measurements when the initial state is unknown. This problem is of particular relevance to detecting forced oscillations in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-21 Rajasekhar Anguluri , Lalitha Sankar , Oliver Kosut

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Rick Steinert , Florian Ziel

Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Btissame El Mahtout , Florian Ziel

In life sciences, the experts generally use empirical knowledge to recode variables, choose interactions and perform selection by classical approach. The aim of this work is to perform automatic learning algorithm for variables selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-05 Bienvenue Kouwayè , Noël Fonton , Fabrice Rossi

We consider the estimation and inference in a system of high-dimensional regression equations allowing for temporal and cross-sectional dependency in covariates and error processes, covering rather general forms of weak temporal dependence.…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-18 Victor Chernozhukov , Wolfgang K. Härdle , Chen Huang , Weining Wang

This paper presents a framework for processing EV charging load data in order to forecast future load predictions using a Recurrent Neural Network, specifically an LSTM. The framework processes a large set of raw data from multiple…

The LASSO is an attractive regularisation method for linear regression that combines variable selection with an efficient computation procedure. This paper is concerned with enhancing the performance of LASSO for square-free hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 Shaoxiong Hu , Hugo Maruri-Aguliar , Zixiang Ma

In high-dimensional statistics, the Lasso is a cornerstone method for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation. However, its reliance on the squared loss function renders it highly sensitive to outliers and heavy-tailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 The Tien Mai

Electricity demand forecasting is a well established research field. Usually this task is performed considering historical loads, weather forecasts, calendar information and known major events. Recently attention has been given on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Yun Bai , Simon Camal , Andrea Michiorri

The graphical lasso is a widely used algorithm for fitting undirected Gaussian graphical models. However, for inference on functionals of edge values in the learned graph, standard tools lack formal statistical guarantees, such as control…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Sofia Guglielmini , Gerda Claeskens , Snigdha Panigrahi

A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-03 Nina Schuhen , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-24 Rong Zhu , Ping Ma , Michael W. Mahoney , Bin Yu