Related papers: Statistical models for dynamics in extreme value p…

Crime has both varying patterns in space, related to features of the environment, economy, and policing, and patterns in time arising from criminal behavior, such as retaliation. Serious crimes may also be presaged by minor crimes of…

In this work we address the analysis of discrete-time models of structured metapopulations subject to environmental stochasticity. Previous works on these models made use of the fact that migrations between the patches can be considered…

We consider the task of learning individual-specific intensities of counting processes from a set of static variables and irregularly sampled time series. We introduce a novel modelization approach in which the intensity is the solution to…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…

Structural equation models (SEMs) are fundamental to causal mediation pathway discovery. However, traditional SEM approaches often rely on \emph{ad hoc} model specifications when handling complex data structures such as mixed data types or…

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

In statistics, time-to-event analysis methods traditionally focus on the estimation of hazards. In recent years, machine learning methods have been proposed to directly predict the event times. We propose a method based on vine copula…

This review maps developments in stochastic modeling, highlighting non-standard approaches and their applications to biology and epidemiology. It brings together four strands: (1) core models for systems that evolve with randomness; (2)…

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has attracted extensive attention for modeling complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, the existing GPSSM employs separate Gaussian processes (GPs) for each latent state dimension,…

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

In model-based reinforcement learning, generative and temporal models of environments can be leveraged to boost agent performance, either by tuning the agent's representations during training or via use as part of an explicit planning…

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event).…

Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…

We propose a scalable semiparametric Bayesian model to capture dependencies among multiple neurons by detecting their co-firing (possibly with some lag time) patterns over time. After discretizing time so there is at most one spike at each…

Stochastic ground motion models (GMMs) are gaining popularity and momentum among engineers to perform time-history analysis of structures and infrastructures. This paper aims to review and validate hierarchical stochastic GMMs, with a focus…

Advances in experimental techniques allow the collection of high-resolution spatio-temporal data that track individual motile entities over time. These tracking data motivate the use of mathematical models to characterise the motion…

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Dependent generalized extreme value (dGEV) models have attracted much attention due to the dependency structure that often appears in real datasets. To construct a dGEV model, a natural approach is to assume that some parameters in the…

We exploit Gaussian copulas to specify a class of multivariate circular distributions and obtain parametric models for the analysis of correlated circular data. This approach provides a straightforward extension of traditional multivariate…