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Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yuxiao Cheng , Ziqian Wang , Tingxiong Xiao , Qin Zhong , Jinli Suo , Kunlun He

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Gian Marco Paldino , Gianluca Bontempi

The ability to understand causality from data is one of the major milestones of human-level intelligence. Causal Discovery (CD) algorithms can identify the cause-effect relationships among the variables of a system from related…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Uzma Hasan , Emam Hossain , Md Osman Gani

This paper tackles a critical bottleneck in Super-Structure-based divide-and-conquer causal discovery: the high computational cost of constructing accurate Super-Structures--particularly when conditional independence (CI) tests are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Wenyu Wang , Yaping Wan

This paper introduces a new causal structure learning method for nonstationary time series data, a common data type found in fields such as finance, economics, healthcare, and environmental science. Our work builds upon the constraint-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-10 Agathe Sadeghi , Achintya Gopal , Mohammad Fesanghary

We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-02 Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters , Jan Ernest

The information flow-based quantitative causality analysis has been widely applied in different disciplines because of its origin from first principles, its concise form, and its computational efficiency. So far the algorithm for its…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-08 X. San Liang

Causal discovery is essential for advancing data-driven fields such as scientific AI and data analysis, yet existing approaches face significant time- and space-efficiency bottlenecks when scaling to large graphs. To address this challenge,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Bo Peng , Sirui Chen , Jiaguo Tian , Yu Qiao , Chaochao Lu

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Sascha Xu , Sarah Mameche , Jilles Vreeken

Causal analysis has become an essential component in understanding the underlying causes of phenomena across various fields. Despite its significance, existing literature on causal discovery algorithms is fragmented, with inconsistent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Wenjin Niu , Zijun Gao , Liyan Song , Lingbo Li

The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-05-01 Wenxu Wang , Ying-Cheng Lai , Celso Grebogi

Detecting anomalies and the corresponding root causes in multivariate time series plays an important role in monitoring the behaviors of various real-world systems, e.g., IT system operations or manufacturing industry. Previous anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Wenzhuo Yang , Kun Zhang , Steven C. H. Hoi

The paper reviews methods that seek to draw causal inference from observational data and demonstrates how they can be applied to empirical problems in engineering research. It presents a framework for causal identification based on the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-28 Daniel J Graham

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-27 Sara Magliacane , Tom Claassen , Joris M. Mooij

We consider the problem of causal discovery (structure learning) from heterogeneous observational data. Most existing methods assume a homogeneous sampling scheme, which leads to misleading conclusions when violated in many applications. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Fangting Zhou , Kejun He , Yang Ni

Causal discovery in time-series is a fundamental problem in the machine learning community, enabling causal reasoning and decision-making in complex scenarios. Recently, researchers successfully discover causality by combining neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Yuxiao Cheng , Lianglong Li , Tingxiong Xiao , Zongren Li , Qin Zhong , Jinli Suo , Kunlun He

Dynamic Bayesian networks have been well explored in the literature as discrete-time models: however, their continuous-time extensions have seen comparatively little attention. In this paper, we propose the first constraint-based algorithm…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Alessandro Bregoli , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella
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