Related papers: Backtesting Lambda Value at Risk
Missing data can lead to inefficiencies and biases in analyses, in particular when data are missing not at random (MNAR). It is thus vital to understand and correctly identify the missing data mechanism. Recovering missing values through a…
We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position $X$ when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex…
In this contribution we consider the overall risk given as the sum of random subrisks $\mathbf{X}_j$ in the context of value-at-risk (VaR) based risk calculations. If we assume that the undertaking knows the parametric distribution family…
We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning…
We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement…
In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate…
This paper studies the high-dimensional mixed linear regression (MLR) where the output variable comes from one of the two linear regression models with an unknown mixing proportion and an unknown covariance structure of the random…
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…
Model uncertainty has been one prominent issue both in the theory of risk measures and in practice such as financial risk management and regulation. Motivated by this observation, in this paper, we take a new perspective to describe the…
We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…
Cross-validation is a popular non-parametric method for evaluating the accuracy of a predictive rule. The usefulness of cross-validation depends on the task we want to employ it for. In this note, I discuss a simple non-parametric setting,…
Vector-valued learning, where the output space admits a vector-valued structure, is an important problem that covers a broad family of important domains, e.g. multi-task learning and transfer learning. Using local Rademacher complexity and…
A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…
Practical problems with missing data are common, and statistical methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism…
In this paper, we generalize the parametric Delta-VaR methods from portfolios with elliptic distributed risk factors to portfolios with mixture of elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the Expected Shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of…
We study the problem of robustly estimating the posterior distribution for the setting where observed data can be contaminated with potentially adversarial outliers. We propose Rob-ULA, a robust variant of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm…
As Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve remarkable breakthroughs, aligning their values with humans has become imperative for their responsible development and customized applications. However, there still lack evaluations of LLMs values…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the main regulatory tools used for risk management purposes. However, it is difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…