Related papers: Burstiness Scale: a highly parsimonious model for …
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient…
The dynamics of a wide range of real systems, from email patterns to earthquakes, display a bursty, intermittent nature, characterized by short timeframes of intensive activity followed by long times of no or reduced activity. The…
Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…
Various time series in natural and social processes have been found to be bursty. Events in the time series rapidly occur within short time periods, forming bursts, which are alternated with long inactive periods. As the timescale defining…
As social media becomes a hotbed for the spread of misinformation, the crucial task of rumor detection has witnessed promising advances fostered by open-source benchmark datasets. Despite being widely used, we find that these datasets…
Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interevent time distribution, which primarily captures the deviation from a Poisson…
Hate speech is ubiquitous on the Web. Recently, the offline causes that contribute to online hate speech have received increasing attention. A recurring question is whether the occurrence of extreme events offline systematically triggers…
It is well-known that online behavior is long-tailed, with most cascaded actions being short and a few being very long. A prominent drawback in generative models for online events is the inability to describe unpopular items well. This work…
Human social interactions tend to vary in intensity over time, whether they are in person or online. Variable rates of interaction in structured populations can be described by networks with the time-varying activity of links and nodes. One…
Bursty dynamics is a common temporal property of various complex systems in Nature but it also characterises the dynamics of human actions and interactions. At the phenomenological level it is a feature of all systems that evolve…
Modeling online discourse dynamics is a core activity in understanding the spread of information, both offline and online, and emergent online behavior. There is currently a disconnect between the practitioners of online social media…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…
Bursty dynamics characterizes systems that evolve through short active periods of several events, which are separated by long periods of inactivity. Systems with such temporal heterogeneities are not only found in nature but also include…
As relational event models are an increasingly popular model for studying relational structures, the reliability of large-scale event data collection becomes more and more important. Automated or human-coded events often suffer from…
Public events on social media generate large volumes of discussion whose collective dynamics carry direct value for opinion forecasting and crisis response. Capturing how these dynamics evolve across an event's lifecycle requires organizing…
During natural disasters, people often use social media platforms such as Twitter to ask for help, to provide information about the disaster situation, or to express contempt about the unfolding event or public policies and guidelines. This…
Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects we devise an analytically solvable model…
Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human…
On-line social networks publish information on a high volume of real-world events almost instantly, becoming a primary source for breaking news. Some of these real-world events can end up having a very strong impact on on-line social…
Many online comments on social media platforms are hateful, humorous, or sarcastic. The sarcastic nature of these comments (especially the short ones) alters their actual implied sentiments, which leads to misinterpretations by the existing…